We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Connecticut at W. Virginia (2:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on OVER 127.5

The UCONN Huskies will head into their first test of the season facing W. Virginia. The Huskies have not been on the road yet, but the one thing this team can do is score. The team is young with no upperclassmen on the roster, but they can score from every position. W. Virginia has some capable outside shooters, and this total appears to be rather low, especially in a game that could be lengthy at the end, as it is expected to be close, and that means lots of clock stoppage, and free throws at the end. We will ride the OVER here.

This is a game that will feature a pretender vs. a contender. With that kind of matchup comes substantial line value. Mississippi is off to an 11-2 start falling only to UCONN, and Memphis. Here is the real story behind the numbers and philosophy at this school. Every year Mississippi jumps out of the gate big by stacking up the cupcakes in their own gym. The history speaks loud and clear. They have compiled an early season record over the past 5 years of 11-2, 13-3, 9-4, 8-3, and 9-2 for a combined record of 50-14. It looks like stats from an elite program. Now let's share the rest of the story. Last year's team went 13-3 out of the gate, and like many of the previous years, subsequently dropped 13 of their last 14. The fact is with the 50-14 start, they have not had a winning record in four consecutive years and they stand 30 games below .500 in the SEC in that span. Want more proof? They have gone ahead and supplied the same countless cupcakes at home again this year. They are 10-0 at home, and the combined road record of the teams they beat is 12-68. That is 15%! We'll add one more stat for the record. Once this team has to leave their building and play someone, they have been a dismal 10-38. Yes, that is the same team that compiled the 50-14 record against the cupcakes. St. Louis was the surprise of the Atlantic 10 last year in their first year. They were picked to be a bottom dweller and ended up finishing 3rd at 10-6. They return 7 of the top 8 scorers from that team, and 87% of their rebounding as well, and are always tough at home where they are unbeaten this year. There is tremendous line value in this one as St. Louis at -4 is basically being treated like these teams are evenly matched with the 4 representing a home-court advantage. These teams aren't even. St. Louis is a much better team at home than Mississippi is on the road, and we will play St. Louis big in this one.

NC Greensboro brought back everyone from last year's team. We are not sure just how much of a good thing that is. They had two All-Conference picks, and an All-Freshmen selection, and finished dead last in the Southern Conference North. Nesbit is gone for GA Southern, but there are enough pieces left, to have this team in contention again. The biggest problem Greensboro dealt with last year, and for many years now, is being competitive on the road. This is a team with all that talent, that finished 0-7 in conference play on the road, and 1-13 on the season. The past 5 seasons have seen them win just 13 times on the road. The story has not changed. They needed OT to beat a poor Furman team on the road already this season, and have suffered road losses at Marshall, and lowly Hampton. We will go with a decent GA Southern team, vs a team that just can't find their way on the road.

Youngstown State will come into this game with 6 wins on the season, which may not sound like much, but an up-grade to the programs past. It is somewhat deceiving however, as they have really had many cupcakes, including two wins outside of D1-A. They are off a win vs. Kent, which normally would be a big win, but Kent also lost to Cleveland State and already has 5 losses, so we don't look at that to be what you might think it is. Loyola, Chicago may turn out to be the team to beat in this conference, and they certainly have the talent to do so. This is a veteran team and they know that if they are to truly be the contenders they believe they are, they have to win at places like Youngstown St. Loyola has relished this role as they have been 20-8 ATS as a small favorite from 1-6.5 last 28, while Youngstown St. has covered just 2 of their last 10 inside the Horizon. We will back Loyola as they appear to be the team to beat, and won't slip up on the road.

This will be a matchup of two 9-4 teams and both can get up and down the court, but this is more about Bradley. The home team often dictates the game tempo, especially when they are somewhat the better team. Bradley has averaged nearly 85 ppg at home this year, and topped the century mark twice already. They will enter this game having played OVER in 17 of 21 games vs teams with a losing road record, often the type of team they can dictate tempo with. They have also played OVERin 23 of 30 as a home favorite, so although we don't have a call on the side, we see an up-tempo high scoring game here tonight, and will ride this one to go over the posted total.