Final Four Picks - December 29, 2009

December looks to finish strong for us as we are hitting 61% across all sports at 194-125 for +177 units on the month.

We hit two of three yesterday on the college hoops floor. Over the last three weeks we're 49-39 for +22 units. Today we feature a stacked card of 10 picks including a 4-unit and two 5-unit plays.

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
NFL	37-17 last 54 picks	69%	+$5240
CFB	11-5 last 16 picks	69%	+$1800
MLB	265-219 last 484 picks	55%	+$8370
CBB	49-39 last 88 picks	56%	+$2220
NBA	24-16 last 40 picks	60%	+$1600
NHL	177-100 last 277 picks	64%	+$18250
WNBA	121-90 last 211 picks	57%	+$5490
TOTAL			+$42970

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Buffalo vs. Jacksonville (4:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 144 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Jacksonville scores just 62.6 per game on the road. That puts a lot of pressure on Buffalo to help this one get over this high total. Neutral court games featuring a team off back-to-back double-digit road losses have gone UNDER the total 66% of the time the past fifteen years. As a favorite, Buffalo is 12-4 UNDER the past two seasons. I like this one to go UNDER.

I really like all four of these teams to win their games today. Instead of laying heavy juice on straight-up moneylines, I recommend putting them into a 4-team moneyline parlay which will pay out at +115 odds. 

On the surface we have an 8-3 team playing a 7-4 team. But, while LSU is 8-0 at home, they are 0-3 on the road, scoring just 59 points per game and getting beat on average by 16 points per game! Meanwhile, Xavier is perfect (6-0) at home where they put up 86.5 per game and has won by 22 points per game! Since last season, Xavier is 20-10 ATS vs. winning teams including 9-2 ATS vs. teams at .600 to .800. They are also 6-0 ATS the past three seasons as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points. I like the Musketeers to roll here.

Norfolk State cannot play a lick of defense. The good news is that they can't score either. That's why they are 0-8 on the road this season. Niagara is decent on both sides of the ball. Games played on a neutral court featuring a losing team off a road loss by 10+ points have gone UNDER 63% of the time the past fifteen years. I like this one to go UNDER too.

Furman averages just 65 points per game on the road and it's been getting worse. Outside of a game against lowly S. Carolina State where they went off, this team has managed just 56.7 per game over their last five. Utah Valley State is off a game in which they scored 51 and four games back they managed just 56. On the road this season this team is averaging 54.8 per game. The past two seasons, Furman is 6-0 UNDER after five straight losses. This one should go UNDER.

Howard is averaging just 55 points per game this season. They have barely made it out of the 40s in their last five games. Stephen F. Austin is off a big-scoring game where they hung 102 on E. Central (who?). Neutral-court games with a total under 130 featuring at least one losing team have gone UNDER 60% of the time the past fifteen years. When that bad team is really bad and has struggled to score recently (scored 65 or less in four straight games), the UNDER has hit at a 29-5 mark! I like this one to play close to form and go UNDER.

Oklahoma State is on fire this season having won 11 of 12. Their success has resulted in an inflated line here as no one wants to fade the Cowboys right now (85% of the public is on them here). But, Pacific has a great defense (allowing 61.5 points per game) and they have posted a 6-4 ATS mark in their last 10 games. Over the past two seasons, the Tigers have gone 13-5 ATS vs. good shooting teams (those shooting 45%+ from the field). They are also 27-10 ATS in their last 37 off an upset loss and 8-1 ATS the past two seasons after scoring 60 points or less in their previous game. I like Pacific coming off a bad loss here.

Long Island has struggled but so has Chattanooga. The Mocs are just 2-4 ATS in lined games this season. Long Island can play defense as they have held five of their ten opponents to 39% or worse shooting. Under head coach John Shulman, the Mocs are just 11-21 ATS after allowing 60 points or less last game, 35-50 ATS after a win and 22-40 ATS after an ATS win. I like Long Island to hang here.

Belmont has been putting up big offensive numbers against some extremely weak competition including Alabama State, Eastern Illinois, Mercer and Kennesaw State. But now they run into the Jayhawks who are playing superb defense, allowing just 59 points per game. It's going to be really tough for Belmont here. This is a high total and Kansas is 42-25 UNDER in their last 67when the total is in the 150s. They are also 11-2 UNDER the past three seasons when playing on 5-6 days rest. I like this one to go UNDER.

When a 12-1 team meets a 10-1 team, both with high-scoring offenses, you can be sure that the public will be all over the OVER in the game. There's nothing they like better than two great teams with high-flying offenses. I'm going the other way here and backing the UNDER. This is the highest total Tech has seen all season and it is the second-highest total that New Mexico has seen all season. In the highest total game, New Mexico went UNDER the total by 27.5 points! Tech's offense is fairly pedestrian on the road and the Lobos are holding foes to 59.5 per game here at home. I like this game to go UNDER.

Results: 4-5

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Check out our updated college basketball predictions.
• Here we show our NCAA basketball prior predictions.
• Don't forget to visit our ncaa bracket picks.
• View our updated college basketball gambling philosophy.
• Check out our updated college basketball lines and odds.
• Here we show our NCAA basketball blog.
• Updated today: sports betting NCAA basketball.
• Take a look at our college basketball Game-of-Day Analysis here.
• Read our ncaa march madness pick here.
• Here we show our 2009 college basketball season prior picks.
• Don't forget to read our 2009 season NCAA basketball gambling preview here.
• Don't forget to visit our college basketball ATS standings.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-28-2009
8-2 meets 2-8 and I expect this one to get ugly. Wake has had one really bad game this year, losing to William & Mary as a 16-point favorite. Their only other loss was at Purdue which no one expec...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-27-2009
Both of these teams can score, especially Maryland. But, the Terps can also play defense. They have allowed just 63.6 per game this season (61.7 at home). Their games have been going OVER at a high ra...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-23-2009
The Kentucky Wildcats are a young team and are extremely talented, but the focus could be an issue here. This is the last game before the X-Mas break, so many will be thinking of family friends and no...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-22-2009
This is the first game in the Las Vegas Classic, and it should be a good one between the Cougars and the Wolfpack. The Cougars have a lot of options and even with Taverlini struggling, they are off to...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-21-2009
There is no doubt that Providence will try to use their quickness to run up-and-down on the Bulldogs. That is easier said than done vs. this Bulldogs team. They have ventured into BCS-Conference terri...