College Hoops Predictions - December 29, 2008

We went 3-2 on the college hardwood yesterday. Combined with the 4-0 NBA, it was a very nice basketball day. Today we like seven college baskets games...

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Fordham at Florida International (2:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 120 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Both of these teams are anemic offensively, leading to a low total. But, I like the OVER here thanks to the fact that Fordham can't stop anyone on the road. While scoring just 62.6 per game, they are allowing 72.4 per game. But that defensive average is a bit skewed. While holding opponents at home to 67.9 ppg, they are allowing 83 per game on the road. Florida International struggles mightily to score on the road (averaging under 50 per game), they score 62.4 per game at home. In their last five games, the Golden Panthers have allowed over 70 ppg. I think these teams find enough offense (thanks to average-to-poor defenses) for this one to go OVER.

This line is big thanks to Central Michigan having lost six of their last seven and all but one road game this season. But can the Wildcats cover this huge number? Consider that their big wins this season have come against very weak competition. They have played games vs. Delaware State, Longwood, Lamar, Appalachian State, Tennessee State and Florida Atlantic this season, padding their numbers. They were 24 point favorites vs. Fla Atlantic and won by just 7 points last game. I think this number is too large and will back the road team here.

Nova has been perfect at home, beating foes by 20 ppg on average. But let's look at who they have played: Albany, Fordham, Niagara, Monmouth, Houston Baptist, St. Joes and Navy. Four of those opponents were so weak that there wasn't even a line placed on the game. In the other three games, the smalles line was -12 vs. St. Joes. They simply haven't played anyone so the 20 ppg and 7-0 record doesn't tell us a whole lot. On the road they have faced Towson State, Rhode Island, Penn, Lasalle, and Texas. Texas is the only really good team they have faced all season, and they lost that game by 9 points. Temple is scoring 70 ppg and has the offense to hang in this one. 

After winning five straight to start the season, Murray State has lost four of five. The last time they saw action they were embarrassed, putting up just 41 points. I like that to provide motivation for them to bring their A game offensively here. They shot 27.7% from the field in that game and went 0-for-15 from beyond the arc. The focus for this team since that game has to have been on offense and teams rarely put up two awful performances like that in a row. Prior to that game, the Racers scored 78, 64, 64 and 78 in their prior four games while giving up 76, 73, 75 and 79. Niagara can score as they average 77 points per game. The thing that can keep this one UNDER is another really bad performance by Murray's offense and I don't expect that. I like this game to go OVER.

Oregon is coming off an overtime win and can't be too excited to face LBS here as they look ahead to conference play on deck. Both of these teams have identical records and similar scoring profiles, so why is this line so big? Yes, it's a home game for Oregon, but this is too many points, especially considering that the Ducks have the lesser defense on the court tonight. I like LBS to keep this game close.

Big West conference play kicks off with the 3-6 Matadors visiting the 6-6 Titans. Nine of the last eleven times these two teams have met, the game has gone UNDER. With that history, and a high total, I like the UNDER again tonight. Fullerton can score and Northridge's defense is suspect for sure. But, the fact remains that Fullerton games have gone OVER in just three of their last eleven games this season and most of those totals were lower than this one. The Titans should get in the 80s or even 90 here but that puts a lot of pressure on Northridge to score enough to push this over. I like the UNDER here.

James Madison has been very consistent this season, averaging around 140 points per game whether it be on the road, at home, early or recent play. We know what we get from this team. UTEP has been a scoring machine at home (82.5 ppg) but on the road their average drops by a full 10 points. This is the highest total seen in a James Madison game all season and despite that they have gone UNDER in every game but two thus far. I like this one to go UNDER.

Results: 2-5

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• View our updated 2008 NCAA basketball handicapping preview.
• Hop over to our sports betting college basketball here.
• Check out our updated 2008 college basketball pick results.
• Hop over to our NCAA basketball betting approach here.
• Take a look at our NCAA basketball Game Preview here.
• Updated today: college basketball picks blog.
• View college basketball predictions here.
• Here we show our NCAA basketball spreads.
• Check out ncaa bracket picks here.
• View our updated NCAA basketball against-the-spread records.
• View our updated ncaa march madness pick.
• Updated today: NCAA basketball previous picks.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-28-2008
Indiana State limps into conference play with a 2-9 record. The Sycamores are averaging just 60 ppg on 40% shooting. The offense has actuall been declining as the season progresses. They must face a t...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-27-2008
The Cougars have had the reputation to slow games down to a screeching halt, but when they have played teams that are athletic and like to get up-and-down, like Gonzaga (74 points against the Cougars)...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-23-2008
Here we have a sub-.500 team that is 1-3 at home on the year, laying double digits. Delaware is the better team in this one, but this line is too large. Marist has a better defense and should be able ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-22-2008
The Gators have been holding down the bad teams on their schedule as they always play top level defense under Coach Donovan. Their home opponents from non-BCS schools have been limited to 56.8 ppg wit...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-21-2008
Two horrible teams get together in this one. Combined they have five wins to 13 losses. Charlotte hasn't seen action since December 10. Is this team that much better than Youngstown that they can ...