Free Ncaa Picks - December 29, 2007

5-2 last night, netting +8.4 units. On the week we are 9-2 for +19.5 units. Today we have seven picks...

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Tennessee Martin at Vanderbilt (1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 159.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Vanderbilt games have been soring over the total this year but we like this one to come in UNDER. Tennesee Martin is shoting 36.4% from the field on the road. Overall they are averaging 40.5% vs. opponents that normally allow 45.2%. That's bad - real bad. Vandy holds opponents to 40% shooting at home. They are holding opponents over 2 percentage points lower than they normally average. It could get real ugly for Tennessee Martin's offense here. This team is 11-3 UNDER as a double-digit dog the past three seasons. They are 11-4-2 UNDER in their last seventeen non-conference games as well.

Do we think Clemson is 23 points better than a team like Samford? Most likely. But Samford is a very difficult team to beat by this many points. They play a very slow tempo, and like to lull the opponents to sleep. They did it to a Florida State team that scores in the high 70s, and held them to 46 shots for the game, covering the 20 point line. Last year LSU could only squeeze off 43 shots and couldn't cover as a 20+ favorite. Clemson has won all but one game this season with Furman and Gardner-Webb the only two falling by 20+ points. Clemson may be looking past this one, as they have a tough game on New Year's Day vs Alabama. Samford has not dropped a game by this margin yet, and the way they limit the number of possessions in a game, this will be tough to cover for Clemson.

DePaul is not expected to be a player in the Big East this season, and they come into this game apparently true to form with just a 3-7 mark. So why are they favored on the road? A closer look shows DePaul has played the toughest schedule in the country. They lost to Clemson (10-1), Mississippi (12-0), Vanderbilt (11-0), Kansas (12-0), Creighton (9-1) and Ill-Chicago (8-4). Those six losses were to teams that are 62-6! The fact is they lost to Ole Miss by 6, even though they shot 31%, and 18% from three-point land. They took Vandy to OT, even though the Commodores shot 52% from the field and 48% from three. They simply are a much better team than any stats from playing teams with a combined 62-6 record will reveal. Detroit also wasn't supposed to be good and when Cotton left the team, they are now in the horrible classification. They have dropped five straight, and by a margin of over 15 ppg. Amongst those five losses is a 15 point loss to Texas A&M Corpus Christi, a team DePaul beat by 15. DePaul has a positive assist to turnover ratio, even with the schedule they have had, while Detroit is negative against lesser competition. The talent differential is greater than the overall records would indicate here, and we ride DePaul on the road to pick up a comfortable win.

This is another big mis-match game in which the visiting team, overmatched, is going to struggle on the offensive end. S. Carolina State is shooting just 40.4% from the field on the road this season. James Madison isn't a defensive stalwart but their players are just that much better here and will have no problem holding down the Bulldogs. James Madison is 4-1 UNDER in their last five games vs. teams winning under 40% of their road games. We like this one to come in UNDER this high total.

LaSalle games are averaging 150 ppg on the season while Villanova games are averaging the same. Yes, both teams have offense which is why this total has been inflated beyond reason. Villanova has gone UNDER in nine of their last thirteen home games. When facing a team with a losing road record, they are on a 5-1 UNDER run. They are also 7-3 UNDER in their last ten games when installed as a favorite of 13 or more points. This one should come in UNDER this lofty total.

Drake is out of the gate fast as usual, which puts some value in this one. Last year Drake broke out of the gate at 9-2. Here they sit at 9-1, and they look like the surprise of the MVC. Not quite. Last year when they raced off to an 8-2 start, but were quickly humbled when MVC play began, as they started 0-6 on the road, losing the first five by double-digits in each game. This team has won just 10 times on the MVC road over the last five years, and has dropped 35. The Shockers are not an easy draw on the road. They handed a solid UAB team a 9 point loss here, and preceeded that one with a 20 point thrashing of LSU. Drake has broken through here just once over the last 10 years. The nine Shocker wins have come by an average of 13.6 ppg. We don't see anything different here, except lots of line value, as the Drake 9-1 record gets attention from the odds-makers, as did last year's team opening MVC play on an eight game winning streak. They were instilled as a meager 3 point dog to Evansville, and lost by 21. A fluke? They then went on to Indiana State, again a 3 point dog, and lost by 11. They didn't cover any of their first six games in the MVC. Don't be folled by the 9-1 record, we aren't.

BYU is 6-2 UNDER this year including 4-1 UNDER on the road. Their last OVER was eight games ago. They are playing amazing defense, holding foes to 62.7 points per game (61.0 on the road) on 37.3% shooting. They will be challenged by a Boise State offense that pours in 82.65 points per game on 51.6% shooting. The Broncos have actually been worse offensively at home however and this will be their second-toughest test of the season. Boise State has feasted offensively on teams like Montana Tech, Southern Utah, Utah Valley State and Idaho State. There stats are skewed by a 107 point performance on 70% shooting vs. Montana Tech. Against BYU, they will have trouble getting out of the 60s. We like this one to go UNDER.

Results: 3-3

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Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-28-2007
The Saints opened slowly but have caught fire. They have three solid scorers in Hasbrouck, Ubiles and Franklin, all averaging over 15 ppg. St. Joesph's has done a good job so far, but their b...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-27-2007
Tennessee Tech started out 1-5 vs. weak competition. They have won three of their last six, but when facing solid competition, they can't stay close. They lost by 28 to Florida, 17 to Oregon State...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-26-2007
It has been an injury plagued start for Louisville. Throw in a suspension, and this team has really struggled to find an identity. That could be bad news for Morehead State because this is a frustrate...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-23-2007
The Cougars are out of the gate fast at 10-0. They are shooting 51%, while holding opponents to 37%. The Bengals have nothing, and are off of a 40-point loss to UCLA and a 32-point loss at home to Boi...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-22-2007
Hofstra has averaged 24 wins over the last two years and have been snubbed by the NCAA both times. Now they must learn to win without the leadership and scoring of Loren Stokes (20 ppg) and Carlos Riv...