Ncaa Basketball Free Picks - December 28, 2008

We lost two games by a combined 1.5 points yesterday turning a 4-1 day into a 2-3 day. Argh. We'll lose some of those and get some. On to today's games...

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Indiana State at Northern Iowa (2:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Northern Iowa -8.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Indiana State limps into conference play with a 2-9 record. The Sycamores are averaging just 60 ppg on 40% shooting. The offense has actuall been declining as the season progresses. They must face a team that is 5-1 at home, getting over 70 ppg here. Northern Iowa also has played great defense this year, holding foes to 61.3 per game here at home. In their last game, the Panthers shot 57.1% while holding their opponent to 38.2%. I like their momentum from that game to carry over into this one. Northern Iowa gets the call here.

Rice is averaging 68 ppg, more than Arkansas LR. The problem has been consistency, and defense. The Trojans have a solid defense. But, are these two teams really this far apart? Consider that Rice is 3-2 ATS on the road while ALR is just 2-4 ATS at home. In games in which they've been a big favorite (5 points or more), the Trojans are 0-5 ATS on the season! This spread is asking a lot. Ben Braun teams are 65-42 ATS when facing an opponent at .600 or better. Under Steve Sheilds, ALR is just 15-27 ATS in non-conference games and 31-44 ATS off a win. I like the Owls with the points here.

Illinois State has been perfect this season, going 11-0 thus far. They now face another excellent team in Missouri State who is 7-4 including 6-2 at home. These teams take different approaches. The Redbirds are doing it with offense as they are averaging 76.8 per game overall and 81.8 per game on the road! The Bears have done it with defense. I like Illinois State's chance at scoring here though as they are the better team. If that happens and Missouri State gets behind, they are not going to be afraid to try to catch up by launching three-pointers. They take 21 per game and the Redbirds are 9-2 OVER since last season vs. teams that take 21+ per game. I like this game to gove this low posted total as Illinois State should force an up-tempo high scoring affair.

Evansville is 8-2 (8-0) at home. While they have played excellent defense, they are 5-2 OVER in their lined games thanks to totals posted too low. I think the same thing is happening here. The Purple Eagles score 75 ppg at home and they wil be facing a defense today that is excellent at home (allowing 58.7 ppg), but pedestrian on the road (allowing 66 ppg). Evansville is 18-8 OVER the past three seasons when facing a team that allows under 64 ppg on average. I like the OVER here.

The Big Green haven't won on the road this season, leading to a big spread here. But let's not forget they are playing a tema that is 1-2 on the road, averaging 56.7 ppg. Dartmouth can hang with Air Force offensively in this one. Yes, the Big Green offense is horrible, but Air Force doesn't want to get in a shootout. They take just 46 shots per game, compared to 59 for Dartmouth. I like the Big Green to hang close enough here.

Results: 3-2

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Don't forget to read our 2008 college basketball gambling preivew here.
• Read our college basketball sportsbook here.
• Here we show our 2008 college basketball prior pick season results.
• View our betting NCAA basketball here.
• Take a look at our NCAA basketball Game-of-Day Analysis here.
• Hop over to our blog NCAA basketball picks here.
• Don't forget to visit our NCAA basketball handicapping.
• View our updated NCAA basketball lines and odds.
• Read our ncaa bracket picks here.
• Check out NCAA basketball against-the-spread records here.
• Hop over to our march madness pick here.
• Check out our updated NCAA basketball prior picks.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-27-2008
The Cougars have had the reputation to slow games down to a screeching halt, but when they have played teams that are athletic and like to get up-and-down, like Gonzaga (74 points against the Cougars)...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-23-2008
Here we have a sub-.500 team that is 1-3 at home on the year, laying double digits. Delaware is the better team in this one, but this line is too large. Marist has a better defense and should be able ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-22-2008
The Gators have been holding down the bad teams on their schedule as they always play top level defense under Coach Donovan. Their home opponents from non-BCS schools have been limited to 56.8 ppg wit...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-21-2008
Two horrible teams get together in this one. Combined they have five wins to 13 losses. Charlotte hasn't seen action since December 10. Is this team that much better than Youngstown that they can ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-20-2008
Sometimes the big-name school against the no-name makes it look easy. Georgia is coming off a big layoff here, and with a mediocre-caliber opponent, they may not be focused or sharp here. They have al...