Free Ncaa Basketball Picks - December 28, 2007

1-0 last night for our fourth straight win. We have seven picks tonight...

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: St. Joesphs at Siena (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Siena +2 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 153.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The Saints opened slowly but have caught fire. They have three solid scorers in Hasbrouck, Ubiles and Franklin, all averaging over 15 ppg. St. Joesph's has done a good job so far, but their biggest problem is they are very thin on the bench getting little or no contribution, as all five starters average over 30 minutes a game. Garrett Williamson gets 20 minutes off the bench, but he contributes just 4 points and 1 rebound per game and has made 16 turnovers. The Saints are tough to beat at home, as they have now won 10 straight going back to last season, and one of those games this season was a big win over Stanford, who is 10-1. We like Siena as the team under the radar in this one, to win at home. This total is set very high. Siena has gone UNDER in four of their seven lined games this season including 2-1 UNDER in close games (small spread). Joe's has been an OVER team but not in expected close games. In games with a small line, they are 2-0 UNDER. We like this one to come in under the 154 as well.

It's been tough to go against S. Illinois on their court, but this is not the same type of team that has built that huge home-court advantage. The Sulukis have been a very good team since the 00-01 season, having lost only three times at home during this stretch. This team is more like that 00-01 team (before the good run), that finished 16-13. The Sulukis have fewer wins than any MVC team at this point, and lost by double-digits at home already this year to Indiana. It was the first time they lost that bad since Creighton beat them back in 00-01 by 14. That team went on to lose seven games at home and three by double digits, and this team will likely lose more than the three games they have lost at home over the last seven years. Butler is for real as we saw last year, and they have everyone back. They are even better than last year's squad. They seem to struggle against Wright State but beat everyone else, as they are off to an 11-1 start. It's the wrong year for the Sulukis to get a very talented, and experienced Butler team on the road. Butler plays awesome defense, holding foes to 57 ppg. But S. Illinois is scoring 74.5 per game at home while allowing 66.5. Games with a total set at under 120, featuring a team off a road win have gone OVER 70% of the time (49-21) over the past ten years. In games with a total under 120, Butler is 11-3 OVER the past three seasons. We'll take Butler and the OVER here.

What a job Andy kennedy has done at Ole Miss. Last season they were picked dead and last in the SEC, but he managed to get his team to a 21-13 record and 8-8 finish in the SEC and an NIT bid. What did it get him? SEC Coach of the Year, and still no belief, as the Rebels are picked dead last again. They are 11 games into the season and the Rebels stand at 11-0. The answer has been freshman PG Chris Warren who is averaging 15 ppg and nearly 6 apg, while maintaining a 2-1 assist to turnover ratio. Florida transfer David Huertas is averaging 10 ppg and a slimmer Dwayne Curtis down to 270 from 310 pounds is at 15.6 ppg. Eneil Polynice has emerged as a double digit scorer, and yet another freshman, Trevor Gaskins, is averaging nearly 10 per game. The Rebels are a serious up-tempo team at 87 ppg, and with the Freshmen contributing right away, and Huertas in the mix, they have the depth to do it. S. Mississippi is a solid team, but they are 0-3 out of their own building, while Mississippi has already logged a 3-0 mark in neutral site games. We look for Ole Miss to feed off the confidence, as this team is developing both depth, and chemistry.

Denver is averaging just 55.5 ppg on the season and both of these teams are playing good defense. But, Santa Clara should be able to score enough here to push this over the very low total. Games with a total under 130 involving a team that is off a good defensive performance (allowed 60 or less) vs. a team that scored 55 or less in their last game have gone OVER at a 62% clip over the past decade as the line gets overly deflated. Denver is 9-1 OVER in their last ten road games vs. good 3-point shooting teams (those hitting 37%+). Everything points UNDER here but that's the kind of game we want to go contrarian. We'll back the OVER.

These teams have combined for a 6-3 UNDER mark in lined games so far. Morgan State road games this year have averaged 136.5 total points. Niagara road games have averaged 151.2. This total is higher than both and a full 15 points higher than Morgan's average. Niagara is shooting just 39.6% from the field this season and 36.2% on the road. That doesn't lend itself to getting over a total set this high.

Results: 5-2

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Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-27-2007
Tennessee Tech started out 1-5 vs. weak competition. They have won three of their last six, but when facing solid competition, they can't stay close. They lost by 28 to Florida, 17 to Oregon State...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-26-2007
It has been an injury plagued start for Louisville. Throw in a suspension, and this team has really struggled to find an identity. That could be bad news for Morehead State because this is a frustrate...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-23-2007
The Cougars are out of the gate fast at 10-0. They are shooting 51%, while holding opponents to 37%. The Bengals have nothing, and are off of a 40-point loss to UCLA and a 32-point loss at home to Boi...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-22-2007
Hofstra has averaged 24 wins over the last two years and have been snubbed by the NCAA both times. Now they must learn to win without the leadership and scoring of Loren Stokes (20 ppg) and Carlos Riv...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-21-2007
Florida Tech, Kennesaw State and Buffalo represent the games put in the win column by Florida International. We aren't sure if most could find those schools on a map, let alone the world of colleg...