Ncaa Bracket Predictions - December 23, 2009

We finished 3-4 on the college hoops side last night. Today we've got six premium picks including a 5-unit play and a 5-unit parlay. Our CBB picks are 43-35 over the last two and a half weeks for +16 units.

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
NFL	31-15 last 46 picks	67%	+$4280
CFB	6-2 last 8 picks	75%	+$1120
MLB	265-219 last 484 picks	55%	+$8370
CBB	43-35 last 78 picks	55%	+$1580
NBA	20-13 last 33 picks	61%	+$1170
NHL	166-91 last 257 picks	65%	+$18310
WNBA	121-90 last 211 picks	57%	+$5490
TOTAL			+$40320

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Long Beach State at Kentucky (1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 152 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The Kentucky Wildcats are a young team and are extremely talented, but the focus could be an issue here. This is the last game before the X-Mas break, so many will be thinking of family friends and not the task at hand. This game is early so some can get home in time for the Holiday. I would expect enough effort to get a win, but likely a less than stellar effort here. Long beach will do everything they can to avoid a track meet because they will get blown out, and they won't be surprised if they zone Kentucky to get them to take some impatient bad deep shots. This is a high total for this type of matchup, and these circumstances and I'll play this one to go UNDER the total.

The Louisville Cardinals had to replace a lot of parts, but the talent level is still there. What is missing though, is experience. This is the Cards’ last game before the Holidays and some of the young players may have their minds elsewhere, especially against inferior competition that doesn't warrant their full attention. In their two biggest mismatches this season vs. LSU and Southern Miss, the Cajuns really slowed things down resulting in two UNDERs. I expect more of the same as they have played UNDER the total in four straight as a dog. This total is bumped by the fact that Louisville topped the century mark last game, but in games following 100+, the Cards are 7-1 to the UNDER in their next game. The Cardinals have one eye on the Holiday, and with a Cajuns team slowing the game down, 20+ is a hard number to crack. I like LA Lafayette, and the UNDER in this one.

I really like Boston College, Georgia, Houston and Utah State to win their games outright. Being big favorites, I'm putting all three into a moneyline parlay at nice -200 odds. Boston College gets UMass who is shooting just 39.1% on the road while allowing 82.3 points per game. BC should roll there. Georgia faces Florida Atlantic who is 2-5 on the road and 4-18 overall the past two seasons. Georgia's defense is stifling (allowing 59.4 ppg at home) and they are 63-16 in their last 79 games as a home favorite. Houston takes on TCU. The Cougars are scoring 83.3 points per game and TCU won't be able to keep up here. TCU is just 1-8 straight-up in the second of back-to-back road games the past three seasons while Houston is 14-5 at home after a game as a home favorite. Finally, Utah State faces Weber State in the Basketball Travelers International final round. Utah State is has been superb at home, going 6-1 and winning on average by 20 points per game! Utah State allows 58.6 per game at home while Weber allows 73.7 per game on the road - a whopping 15 point difference. Put these four teams into a moneyline parlay.

It is becoming apparent that the Broncos aren't quite as good as the oddsmakers have factored them to be. They have really struggled as a favorite and when posted as a chalk of more than 3, they are 0-4 ATS. The Bobcats are much better than their record, with 4 losses vs. quality opponents in Nevada, Southern Miss, Oregon and Memphis. They are 7-0 otherwise. They have really flown under the radar as they are now 11-0 ATS as a road dog of 7-12.5 in their last 11. The school isn't recognized, so they usually get a bump in the line playing against a named school, but their ability certainly passes the test. I'll go with Montana State here.

The Aggies beat Weber State by 6. That game was at Weber. This one is at home and I like Utah State to run away with it. Weber lost four of their first five games, but has improved since. The problem is that they have faced some pretty weak competition including Western State College, Seattle, Sacramento State, Montana Tech and Southern Utah. Yikes! Against good competition, they lost to UCSB by 9 points, BYU by 17 and UNLV by 9. Despite the weak competition overall, they are 3-4 on the road. Utah State's defense is great (58.6 per game allowed at home) and should allow them to win this one big.

Results: 3-3

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• View our updated college basketball handicapping.
• Hop over to our NCAA basketball picks here.
• View our updated ncaa march madness brackets .
• Hop over to our NCAA basketball sports handicapping philosophy here.
• Read our college basketball odds and lines here.
• Updated today: NCAA basketball picks blog.
• View our updated sportsbook reviews NCAA basketball.
• Don't forget to visit our NCAA basketball Game-of-Day-Preview.
• View our ncaa march madness picks here.
• Here we show our 2009 NCAA basketball prior picks results.
• Take a look at our 2009 season college basketball betting preivew here.
• Don't forget to visit our college basketball ATS standings.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-22-2009
This is the first game in the Las Vegas Classic, and it should be a good one between the Cougars and the Wolfpack. The Cougars have a lot of options and even with Taverlini struggling, they are off to...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-21-2009
There is no doubt that Providence will try to use their quickness to run up-and-down on the Bulldogs. That is easier said than done vs. this Bulldogs team. They have ventured into BCS-Conference terri...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-20-2009
I really like these three teams today to win their games. They are heavy favorites but by putting them in a three-team moneyline parlay we get nice odds of -165. Rhode Island is undefeated at home, sc...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-19-2009
A true early season heavyweight battle of NCAA titans takes place here with the young and talented Tar Heels squaring off against the Texas Longhorns. These games tend to always have a high total, yet...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-17-2009
The Purple Aces are not exactly showing a lot of punch with their last five showing three losses, and two wins by a combined five points. Those wins were over Alabama State and Tennessee Tech - certai...