Ncaa Basketball Favorites - December 22, 2008

Seven premium CBB plays today.

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Georgia Southern at Florida (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 149.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The Gators have been holding down the bad teams on their schedule as they always play top level defense under Coach Donovan. Their home opponents from non-BCS schools have been limited to 56.8 ppg with none topping 60. That puts pressure on one team to do all the scoring when the total gets into the 150 range to push it over. The problem is that this Florida team has only managed to find the 90-point mark just once in 10 games thus far this season. When playing as a big dog of 13 or more points, Georgia Southern slows things down as five of their last seven games have gone to the UNDER. Florida has now played under in nine of their last 13 non-conference games. I like this one to go UNDER the posted total.

A first-ever matchup between Towson and Bowling Green will take place tonight at Anderson Arena in Bowling Green, KY. Bowling green got out strong to open the season winning three of their first four, but have since dropped four of their last five. Of the three wins to open the season, two were over Div-II teams and they had no trouble finding the scoreboard averaging 75 points per game. Things have gotten a bit more difficult since as Bowling Green has managed just 59.8 ppg since. This certainly makes it difficult to cover a number hovering around double-digits with an inconsistent offense and lots of empty trips. Towson has found trouble scoring when they play up against teams way over their head as they have already met St. Joe's, Penn State and Villanova where they managed just 55 ppg, but when playing against reasonably close competition they have fared much better at 74.7 ppg. I like the Tigers here that have shown the ability to score against a Bowling Green team that has shown a lack of offensive firepower to be favored in this range. Towson gets the nod.

The Demon Deacons like to get the game into high gear and move the ball down the court quickly. East Carolina does to, but the home team Pirates may have learned that life in the ACC is different than elsewhere, as they tried to stay in a fast game with North Carolina State and lost by 11. This one they get at home, and will certainly pick their spots to run, but they have to realize they can't run with Wake for 40 minutes or they will face a similar fate. The Demon Deacons certainly control the tempo at home, but when they get on the road they aren't as proficient offensively and usually meet more resistance slowing the game down. The result has been nine of their last 10 games as a road favorite have gone UNDER the total, and I look for this one to do the same and will back the UNDER here.

The reference most have on this St. Joe's team is taking a superior a Villanova team to the wire, so handling an Ivy league school at home should be quick and easy work. When a team is coming off their most intense effort of the season, and that is the reference, the value pendulum usually swings in the opposite direction, especially when they have not played for 11 days. The difference in this game could well be determined at the FT-line. The Big Red went to the line 37 times in their win over LaSalle last time out. The Hawks managed to make just six FTs in their loss to the Wildcats. St. Joe's is not a big offense at just 68 ppg, and Cornell has a talent level that can compete here, so I'll grab the points.

This San Diego team was expected to have a chance to return and do more damage in the NCAA Tournament this year, with most of the key parts back from a team that defeated UConn last year. The problem was injuries to their PG and suspensions. All of a sudden, things aren't what they were supposed to be. The key parts missing have left this team searching for answers more than having them with a 6-6 start. Boise State will enter this one with a 7-3 record, but has not faced stiff competition, but then the Toreros may longer qualify for that "stiff" competition label themselves. Boise State is getting solid contributions from eight players and is shooting the ball well. The loss of their point guard has left the Toreros’ offense in disarray with more turnovers than assists, and this number looks too big here. Boise State gets the call.

San Francisco will be traveling to play after an eight-day layoff. San Jose State and San Francisco are fairly close talent-wise on the season with one big exception. San Jose has now regained the services of Adrien Oliver. Oliver had managed to be on the court just 18 minutes this season, but in his first full game he scored 27 in an 11 point win over Northern Colorado. Oliver transferred from Washington where he was expected to be a big-time player. That gives the Spartans a whole new look as they now have two big scorers, as he combines with Tim Pierce and his 18.4 ppg and 41% marksmanship from three. The Dons have a big scorer in Dior Lowhorn at 19.8 ppg, but the addition of Oliver gives the Spartans more firepower. Couple that with the Dons being off a layoff, heading on the road and they may be rusty out of the gate, so I'll back the Spartans in this one.

Montana State started quickly last year, but faded as the season went on. They lost four seniors, but those players seemed to have experience, but no chemistry as the team became unglued as it got deeper, right through the end of the season. This year, they had just one starter back in Divaldo Mbunga, and he is producing the same 12 ppg he did a year ago. Howard and Rush are holdovers that have stepped up a bit, but the two biggest surprises have been out of nowhere and are the top two scorers on the team. Will Bynum (12 ppg) and Danny Piepoli - injured all last year, has come back strong with 12 a game as well, so the Bobcats are better than advertised. CS Fullerton has managed just five wins thus far on the season, and got a taste of just what the Bobcats are all about two weeks ago when they dropped a 74-60 decision to them. They were out rebounded by 18 and held to 38% shooting. I’m Not sure if they can make up that much distance in two weeks, so the Bobcats get the call here.

Results: 5-2

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• View our updated 2008 NCAA basketball preview.
• View our NCAA basketball sports book here.
• Here we show our 2008 college basketball prior pick season results.
• Don't forget to visit our college basketball handicapping philosophy.
• Check out college basketball Game-of-Day Analysis here.
• View college basketball blog here.
• Here we show our free NCAA basketball predictions.
• View our updated NCAA basketball odds lines and spreads.
• Check out our updated ncaa march madness brackets.
• Take a look at our NCAA basketball against-the-spread records here.
• View our updated march madness picks.
• Check out our updated college basketball prior predictions.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-21-2008
Two horrible teams get together in this one. Combined they have five wins to 13 losses. Charlotte hasn't seen action since December 10. Is this team that much better than Youngstown that they can ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-20-2008
Sometimes the big-name school against the no-name makes it look easy. Georgia is coming off a big layoff here, and with a mediocre-caliber opponent, they may not be focused or sharp here. They have al...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-19-2008
The UL Monroe Warhawks certainly haven't gotten out of the gate as they expected at 2-7, but they have played their last five on the road. This team has been getting exploited defensively as they ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-18-2008
The Bulldogs preparation for this one may have been reduced by the fact that head coach Rick Stansbury was out sick with a viral infection, which caused him some time in the hospital. Both of these te...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-17-2008
The Akron Zips have gotten more production out of Brett McKnight who scored 4 ppg a year ago and is now second on the team with 11 ppg. The Zips have some key holdovers and are young, deep and talente...