Final Four Predictions - April 05, 2008
And then there were four... Today we have selections in the NCAA Tournament Final Four.
Despite a meager showing in the NIT and CBI we hit it where it counts - in the Big Dance, to the tune of +6.94 units thus far. During the tournament we are 9-3 (75%) so far with our top-rated 4 and 5 unit picks. Today we look to keep the hot hand with a pair of 4-unit selections.
Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:
Game: U C L A vs. Memphis (6:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on U C L A +2 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
Memphis has played through the season with just one blemish, yet many still don't believe, but after they trashed Texas, that opinion has started to change. Memphis is a very solid team, perhaps they can best be described like the UNLV teams that made a tourney run over a decade ago. They are a freelance, talent-laden team, but they, at times play reckless and without discipline. That is a fatal recipe against a team like UCLA. UCLA is one of the most disciplined teams in the country, rarely if ever, beating themselves. They have been to the Final Four in back-to-back years with mostly the same cast and now you add Kevin Love to the mix and this UCLA team is a tough matchup for Memphis. They just haven't played against a team like UCLA all season that brings in waves of rebounders and has a player in Collison that can get his shot or dish against anyone. UCLA is also good at cutting off transition, which is what Memphis thrives on and could easily see them getting frustrated and taking bad shots. Then there is the FT-shooting issue, which didn't show itself last game, but a 30+ game history says you'd be a fool if you didn't think it was a factor. UCLA has a lot of fouls to give inside, and you can bet they will use them instead of giving up an easy two - make Memphis get them from the line and that will cost them points as well. UCLA is the wrong kind of team for Memphis and the Bruins advance here.
Game: Kansas vs. North Carolina (8:45 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on North Carolina -3 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
For the first time in the history of the NCAA Tournament, all four No. 1 seeds have made it through to the Final Four. Kansas will enter this game scoring 80.6 points per game and winners of 11 straight. Carolina comes in averaging 89.2 ppg and winners of 15 straight, so something has got to give tonight. This is a game that will be played NBA style - with lots of transition scoring and future NBA players all over the court for both teams. This will be a tough spot for Kansas, because they will be playing a team that likes to run like they do, but one that just simply does it better, faster and more consistent. Kansas has had a good draw thus far in the tourney as they have faced teams that pretty much play a half-court game and can't run with them. When Kansas has allowed 70 points this season they are 3-5 ATS, and at the same time when they play to a total of 150+, they are 2-4 ATS. It shows they have not been involved with many games projected to score as this one does, and when teams score on them they have difficulty getting the money. Carolina is 11-4 ATS when they are only a single digit favorite, and at times played disinterested this season, but when the competition is high, they have been at their best. They are also 11-3 ATS over teams in this year's tourney. A big bonus for Carolina is their top four FT-shooters all connect at 80% or higher, so no lead is going to be melted away at the FT-line down the stretch, if anything it will be extended. On the other hand Kansas does not have a single 80%+ FT-shooter on their roster and has shot poorly at the line in the tournament at just 63%. This game is likely to be played at break-neck speed and Carolina just doesn't lose those kinds of games and this will be the quickest team Kansas has seen all season. Many of these games projected to be close, often turn out to be blowouts and we believe there is a chance that could be the case in this one. Carolina rolls to The Final.
NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-April-03-2008
The NIT Championship will be decided at The Garden tonight as UMass takes on Ohio State. It will be the offense of UMass against the defense of Ohio State. This total is strictly based on UMass, and t...
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-30-2008
We liked Texas over Stanford and they didn't dissapoint. As we stated in our writeup for that game, the late stages of this tournament are about quality guard play and it doesn't get any bette...
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-29-2008
UCLA is on a mission. They aren't playing blow-out basketball, squeaking by Texas A&M and Western Kentucky in the pat two rounds. But as they have done all season, they just find a way to win....
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-28-2008
This game, as is the case in most Badger games, has ugly written all over it. Wisconsin certainly doesn't win with offense as they average just 67.6 ppg. Their calling card is defense. They allow ...
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-27-2008
The Tar Heels haven't just won this year, they have won big. They have an amazing 26 double-digit wins on the season and are absolutely clicking on offense right now. Washington State is capable o...
