Nba Picks - October 30, 2007
In case you missed it, check out our 2007 NBA Predictions & Preview. On opening night we like two picks...
Today's NBA Basketball Picks:
Game: Portland at San Antonio (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Game Total UNDER 189.5 -110
Portland's season took a hit when No. 1 pick, Greg Oden had season-ending knee surgery over the summer. The fact that they traded their most productive player, in Zack Randolph, and with Brandon Roy, their No. 2 scorer out as well with a heel problem, makes you wonder where the points will come from. San Antonio has long made it clear that they are committed to defending the court. The team led the NBA in points allowed last season, and they have a penchant for establishing that early in the season. The last five years, the Spurs’ early home games (first seven of the year), they have played 27 UNDERS to just eight OVERS. That is 77% of the time, so what this team is about is established right away. Portland really struggled last season against the top defenses. They averaged close to 10 points a game less than their overall average on the road against the NBA's top six defensive teams. They could manage just 83 ppg! Missing their two top scorers from last season won't help, and the Spurs like to get the message out early that are willing to defend. This game goes under.
Game: Utah at Golden State (10:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on First Half UNDER 110.5 -110
One of the things that turned the season around for Golden St. was Stephen Jackson. Jackson will be sitting out the first seven games with a suspension, and with it his 17 points per game (PPG). Monta Ellis, may also miss this game or be less than 100%, so his 17ppg may be missing as well. Utah has been one of the top teams playing UNDER in the first half, under Coach Sloan. It is apparent he realizes that winning on the road in the NBA requires a defensive effort. We have a system that produces 69% winners covering 363 games played that is alive for this game. These teams have also played lots of unders in the first half when matched together. Over their last 22 meetings they have played UNDER the first half total 64% of the time. Sometimes good offensive teams take time to get it going. Golden St. managed just 46 points in their home opener in the first half last year, and followed it up with 48 points in game two. We will ride the trends, the history of these teams, and our system to play the first half under.
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