Free Picks Basketball - November 04, 2007
2-1 yesterday. Today we like totals in seven games...
Today's NBA Basketball Picks:
Game: Boston at Toronto (2:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on First Half UNDER 97 -110
Boston's new "Big Three" combined for 67 points, 29 rebounds and 11 assists in their opening night blowout win over Washington on Friday. The newly acquired Kevin Garnett pulled down 20 rebounds. They held the Wizards to just 83 points. Toronto is off a game in which they held New Jersey to 69 points. Yes, these teams have scored a lot but the defense is what we look at here. NBA games with a first-half total set between 95.5 and 100.5 with a team coming off a double-digit home win vs. a team off a road win have gone UNDER 70% of the time over teh past decade. The past couple of years, Toronto has gone UNDER the first half 66% of the time (40-21) when favored. Take the first half UNDER here.
Game: Seattle at Los Angeles Clippers (3:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 210 -110
Just as Kevin Durant begins to provide excitement in Seattle, owner Clay Bennett has filed with the NBA to move the franchise to Oklahoma City. As good as Durant has been early, the Sonics have still dropped their first two and the losing streak has reached eight games dating back to last season. Chris Kaman came up big for the Clippers with 26 points and 18 rebounds in the Clippers home win over Golden State. The Clippers controlled the boards for some easy scoring inside, but that is the Sonics lone strength, as they have won the battle of the boards in each of their first two games. A repeat performance by Kaman is unlikely and with Brand sidelined, this game will take on a different tone tonight. We expect the scoring to be down. The Sonics are a much better scoring team at home, topping the century mark in six of their last 16 last year on the road. The Clippers have met a similar fate at home as they topped the century mark just five times in their last 16 at home. The UNDER has cashed in five of the last six in this match-up and is 17-7 in the Clippers last 24 vs. the West. The Sonics have played under in seven of their last eight vs. the Pacific. The Clippers also played under in 13 of their last 16 when the total was 200+ last season. These teams went UNDER in all four last season and have been known for some ugly games. The average points scored in those four games was 173. We see lots of value in the under here.
Game: Charlotte at Miami (6:05 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on First Half UNDER 95 -110
What's wrong with Miami? They lost their last two regular season games last year, got swept in the playoffs and have lost two in a row this year. That's 15 straight losses if you're counting. Dwyane Wade is out and Shaq has been terrible. This is not the Heat we have come to know. They are averaging just 82.5 points per game and 44.5 in the first half. But, they are playing some defense (allowing 89 per game, 48 in the first half). Miami is hitting just 40% from the field and 46% from the charity stripe. When coming off a game in which they hit under 60% of their free throws, the Heat have gone UNDER the first half total 28 out of 41 times the past three seasons. The last 35 times they hit under 50% from the line, they went UNDER the first half total 25 times. We expect Riley to have his defense clamp down until they can emerge from their scoring slump. We like this first half to be very low-scoring.
Game: Atlanta at Detroit (7:35 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on First Half UNDER 95 -110
The Hawks pulled off a big upset over Dallas in their opener. That was at home and they now travel to Detroit where they are in for a rude awakening. The Pistons are one of the best defensive teams in the league at home and the opening night Atlanta win will ensure they don't get caught napping here. Detroit has already held their first two opponents to an average of just 86 ppg. Games with a first-half total of 95.5 to 100.5 featuring a road team off an upset win have gone UNDER 64% of the time over the past five seasons. Atlanta was 49-32 to the first half UNDER last season on the road including 42-22 UNDER as a dog. The last three seasons they have gone on the road eight times after winning as a home underdog and the first-half UNDER was a perfect 8-0. And, when playin gon the road vs. a winning team, Atlanta was 14-4 UNDER in the first half last season. After playing a game that went OVER, Detroit was 32-12 to the first-half UNDER last season at home.
Game: New Orleans at Denver (8:05 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on First Half UNDER 108.5 -110
Six of the last seven games between these two teams have resulted in a first-half OVER. But, this line has now over-adjusted. The last few times these teams have met, the game total was set around 206. This game is ten points higher! Yes, both teams, especially Denver, can score. But it'll be a tall order to get to 109 in the first half here. Games with first-half totals set higher than 105 go UNDER 65% of the time in November. Byron Scott has coached 14 games in which his team is on the road following a huge 20+ point blowout win. Twelve of those games went UNDER the first-half total. We expect New Orleans to drag a bit here and for this one to come in UNDER.
Game: Cleveland at Phoenix (8:05 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 207.5 -110
Things aren't exactly right with either of these two teams. Cleveland needed a bit of luck and a monster night from LeBron to beat the Knicks and avoid and 0-2 start. Phoenix lost badly last game out to the Lakers thanks to Amare Stoudemire's 2-for-10 performance. Cleveland is averaging just 92 points per game thus far. The past couple of seasons they are 25-12 UNDER after back-to-back ATS losses. They are also 29-13 UNDER as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. This total is very high considering the play so far and we'll look for the game to go UNDER.
Game: Utah at Los Angeles Lakers (9:35 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on First Half UNDER 99.5 -110
Utah is off an extremely high-scoring game in which they poured in 133 points. But don't read too much into that. It was versus Golden State. And it represents the most points scored by the Jazz in 15 years. The reality is that the Jazz are not that kind of team. The real story lies in the history between these two teams that know each other well: the first-half UNDER has come through in 34 of the last 49 games includign 18 of 23 in games played here in LA. In November games with a first-half total over at 100+ featuring a team that surpassed their last-game total by 18+ points, the UNDER has hit at a 68% clip the past decade. Utah is 13-4 to the first-half UNDEr dating back to last season when favored by 3 or less on the road. They are also 9-1 UNDER in the first half on the road when playing back-to-back games. The Lakers the past couple of seasons are 31-13 UNDER in the first half after playing in a high-scoring game (215+ total points).
Results: 5-2
NBA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
NBA-Basketball-Picks-November-03-2007
The Pacers destroyed the grizzlies twice in the pre-season. The Pacers have upgraded in a big way with the play of Danny Granger. The former New Mexico star is fast becoming an NBA star. Granger has a...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-November-02-2007
The Knicks have made some deals that give them a much stronger interior presence than they have had in a while. The addition of Zac Randolph, coupled with the emerging Eddie Curry, gives the Knicks tw...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-November-01-2007
A rematch of the 05-06 Conference finals will take place in Miami tonight. The Heat will again be without Dwayne Wade, recovering from knee, and shoulder surgery, while Richard Hamilton is a maybe wit...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-October-31-2007
The Nuggets open up the NBA season hosting the Seattle Supersonics. We don't think it is any secret that with Iverson and Anthony this team will put up a lot of shots, and a lot of shots quickly. ...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-October-30-2007
Portland's season took a hit when No. 1 pick, Greg Oden had season-ending knee surgery over the summer. The fact that they traded their most productive player, in Zack Randolph, and with Brandon R...
