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Basketball Pick - May 26, 2009Wow! 78-points in the fourth quarter in last night's game put the kibosh on our UNDER play that looked great after quarters one, two and three. Oh well. On to today's action, as we roll out two plays from tonight's Eastern Conference Finals matchup. During the playoffs, we are 47-35 +42.1 units. Our run since mid-November is 291-228, for +134.3 units. Follow us on Twitter! Get instant notifications of 5-unit plays, sportsbook specials, articles and analysis and more. Learn more here!  Today's NBA Basketball Picks: The Magic would be leading in this series three games to none if not for a miracle game-winning three-pointer by LeBron James in game two. It's evident that the Cavaliers have a dilemma in this series. As good as it is to have LeBron James on your team, there is a down side to that. James has made 40.3% of all the Cavs' FGs through four games and 59% of all their free throws. He dominates the offense, which can unfortunately lead to other players standing around. The consequence has been 62-for-162 for 38.2% shooting for the rest of the team. Orlando has been facing an issue of their own as Dwight Howard has taken eight shots in each of the last two games and when you consider he has 10 offensive rebounds, he is getting six at the most out of the offense. That means Orlando is forced to a perimeter game, and points are scored outside as opposed to inside. Game fours are notorious for low-scoring matches because it becomes a very pivotal game for the team behind. In this case Cleveland. Their calling card is defense, and I would expect that to be the flavor of this game and particularly early on. The Magic know LeBron will get his points. They must continue to do what they have been doing defensively on the rest of the Cavs, which has forced them to take contested shots. The Cavs' philosophy since game two is to foul Howard if he gets the ball low, and make him make free throws - the weakest part of his game. I like this one to have a definite defensive signature throughout the game. The Magic have played 11-2 to the UNDER in their last 13 at home vs a team with a winning record, and 27-11 to the UNDER in their last 38 at home overall. The Cavs always bring their defense on the road in the playoffs, as they are a perfect 5-0 to the UNDER on the road this season and 15-5 to the under in their last 20 playoff games on the road. The UNDER gets the call here.Game: Cleveland at Orlando (8:35 PM Eastern) Pick: 5 units on First Half UNDER 93.5 -110 (risk 5 to win 4.6) This being a pivotal game four with the series possibly getting decided here. Expect a very intense effort by both teams, especially the trailing Cavs early on. They know if they don't bring the defense, and lose this game, they are likely done. Cleveland, the best defensive team in the league in the regular season, has not disspointed on this front in the playoffs. They allowed 44.3 per game in the first-half during the regular season and they have shaved over 3 points from that in the playoffs. The past two seasons this team is 47-27 UNDER in the first-half when the line is between 90 and 95. They are also 20-9 UNDER in the first-half over that stretch when playing a team at .700 or better. Orlando is a perfect 9-0 UNDER at home this season when the total is between 93 and 96 and they are a perfect 7-0 UNDER in the first-half at home in the playoffs. I like the intensity to be strongest early on here and for this game to go UNDER in the first half. NBA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters: NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-25-2009 NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-24-2009 NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-22-2009 NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-21-2009 NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-20-2009 |
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