Free Nba Picks - May 24, 2009

LeBron! You think he ripped out the hearts of Orlando players, coaches and fans? What about us?!? Yes, we easily won our 5-unit pick on the Magic +9 last game. But, we also had our 4-unit play on the UNDER winning as well as our +520 pick on Orlando straight up. We had all three of those won with 1.0 seconds on the clock. The only thing that could kill our UNDER and the moneyline play was an incredible 3-point buzzer-beater. LeBron! Argh! That was an incredible 20-unit shot for us. Instead of winning 3.6 units on the UNDER, we lost 4 (a 7.6 unit swing). Instead of winning 10.4 units on the moneyline play, we lost 2 units (a 12.4 unit swing). All in all, a 20-unit swing thanks to King James. Congrats to him and Cleveland fans. But, I'm still a bit bitter :)

We are hitting 67% on our 5-unit NBA playoffs picks (8-4) and will roll with two more today. 

Today's NBA Basketball Picks:

Game: Cleveland at Orlando (8:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Game Total UNDER 190 -110 (risk 5 to win 4.6)

The Cavs were looking down the barrel of 0-2 in the series until LeBron James hit a miracle 3-pointer to bring the Cavs back from the dead. That shot cost us a bundle as it killed our UNDER pick (by a point) and our +520 moneyline pick on the Magic straight-up. Now the Cavs head to Orlando with desparation still peaking. They can't feel good about that win as the odds were very heavily stacked against them with 1.0 seconds left. What will this desparation cause? Defense. This team is an ordinary offensive team outside of LeBron James, but on the defensive end, they have been the best the NBA has to offer all season long. And, you can expect them to rachett that up a notch in game three. On top of that, we again have excellent value on this total thanks to back-to-back OVERs. Game one had a total of 184.5 and this game has one posted 6 points higher. The Cavs did a much better job in the paint in game two, holding Orlando down. That will again be a priority for the Cavs here. The Magic are certainly no strangers to defense themselves, having played 22 of their last 32 games to the UNDER. With the series tied, and this being a very pivitol game, I expect both teams to give their best defensive effort of the series to date. The Cavs have played 16 of their last 23 playoff games on the road to the UNDER. The Magic are also 26-10 to the UNDER in their last 36 as a home favorite and the Cavs are now 28-13-1 to the UNDER off one day rest. Orlando has gone UNDER in 21 of the last 30 games they have played vs. teams that score 100+ ppg. Following two straight OVERs this season, the Cavs are 22-10 UNDER and Orlando is 21-7 UNDER. One way to go here.

This is a pivotal game in this series. The winner has a huge leg up on the series. Both of these teams have shown the capacity to "D" up in big spots, and it doesn't get much bigger than this. I expect a very physical 1st half, as each tries to impose their will on the other. Both these teams have top-rated defenses in points allowed, and defense is where NBA teams turn in the playoffs when the stakes are the highest. Cleveland is 23-14 UNDER in the first-half this season coming off an OVER. They are also 28-13 UNDER in the first-half coming off a home win and 13-5 UNDER off back-to-back home games. Orlando is 31-15 UNDER in the first-half as a home favorite this year. They are also a perfect 8-0 UNDER in the first-half at home when the total is between 93 and 96. The Magic are 14-3 UNDER in the first-half this season revenging a loss. I look for lots of defense tonight and like the first-half UNDER.

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Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-22-2009
The Orlando Magic did what most thought was impossible - grab a game one win in Cleveland after the Cavs were 43-1 at home in meaningful games this season. Orlando’s win seemed especially out of...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-21-2009
The Lakers and the Nuggets locked up in an exciting game one with Denver falling short thanks to 12 missed free throws and a terrible in-bounds pass at the end of the game. The Nuggets have been an of...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-20-2009
The Cavs have really turned it up on the defensive end in the playoffs. The best defense in the NBA in points allowed during the regular season has turning it up a notch further, with no team scoring ...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-19-2009
The Lakers are known primarily for an explosive offense. But we learned well from last year in their series vs the Celtics, that if they don't step up their defense, they are not getting the Champ...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-17-2009
The Celtics are yet again playing a close series that will come down to the wire. The winner here progresses to play the Cavs - what a prize! Many will look at this series, and say Boston is lucky to ...