Nba Free Pick - May 23, 2010

We split yesterday and sit at 93-70 for +39 units over the last two and a half months. Today we hit the court with a pair of premium plays from the Western Conference Finals.

WUNDERDOG 2010 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
NFL	46-29 last 75 picks	61%	+$4060
CFB	25-10 last 35 picks	71%	+$6040
MLB	32-17 last 49 picks	65%	+$1820
NBA	93-70 last 163 picks	57%	+$3930
NHL	362-272 last 634 picks	57%	+$16230
PARLAY	1-1 last 2 picks	50%	+$140
WNBA	121-90 last 211 picks	57%	+$5490
TOTAL			+$37710

Today's NBA Basketball Picks:

Game: Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix (8:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Phoenix -1 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Pick: 3 units on First Half UNDER 109.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The Phoenix Suns were hammered in the first two games of this series by the Lakers and many feel they are dead and buried. After watching Boston crush the Magic to go up 3-0 in their series, the betting public is all over the Lakers here to do the same. But history tells a different story. Dating back to 1991, Conference Finals teams that open 2-0 at home, and then take to the road as a dog have gotten hammered in game three. The results overwhelmingly favor the desperate 0-2 home team as they have risen from the ashes to produce a 31-14 ATS mark at home in game three. Phoenix is 27-15 ATS this season as a home favorite including 12-4 ATS as a favorite of up to 6 points. Los Angeles is just 7-11 straight-up on the road the past two seasons after a double-digit home win. I like Phoenix to win here. I also like the first-half UNDER. This total is set at a sky-high 109.5 points thanks to 117 and 121 being scored in the first half of the first two games. But, those games were in LA and this one is in Phoenix. I expect the Suns to play much better defense at home (how can they not after allowing the Lakers to torch them for 64 per game the last two). When coming off a home win this season, the Lakers are 25-15 UNDER in the first-half. They are 23-11 UNDER in the first-half after three straight wins. Meanwhile, the Suns are 15-5 UNDER this season after a game in which 225 total points were scored. The first two games in this series were all Lakers and unfettered scoring. I look for the change of venue to change the outcomes.

NBA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Read our NBA power ratings here.
• View our updated NBA sportsbook.
• Check out NBA basketball Game Analysis here.
• Check out our updated basketball prior picks.
• Don't forget to read our 2009 season basketball betting preivew here.
• Don't forget to visit our NBA picks blog.
• Check out 2009 basketball pick season results here.
• Don't forget to visit our sports handicapping NBA picks.
• Check out NBA spreads here.
• View our basketball against-the-spread records here.

Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-22-2010
Looking at the first two games of this series, Boston appears to have it all over Orlando. Looking at another playoff in the NHL, we saw how quickly things can change in just one game as the Bruins we...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-18-2010
The Boston Celtics surprised the Orlando Magic in game one in Orlando after the Magic had won eight straight playoffs games by an average of 16.7 points per game. One game does not a series make, and ...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-17-2010
The Phoenix Suns have become a different team as this offensive machine has seen the light. Suddenly, this team is stepping up on the defensive, and the results have followed. They have won eight of t...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-16-2010
This has the makings of a classic series with both teams playing at very high levels. The Magic have run the table in the playoffs, winning eight straight and 14 straight overall. Meanwhile the Celtic...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-13-2010
The heat is on the Cavaliers, as they face a must win in this one, which usually means defensive intensity right out of the gate. We saw it last game in which these teams combined for 94 first-half po...