darrell,

Got the big one last night while dropping the smaller one thanks to an unreal shooting performance by Dallas in the first half. Going with a TOTAL pick again in tonight's game one matchup between Detroit and Miami.

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Good luck , darrell!

Game: Miami at Detroit (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 stars on OVER 187.5

Detroit stepped up in game seven against Cleveland, shutting down LeBron and taking the game in easy fashion. It was a statement win and a great one. But, they have to be a bit winded. They went seven games, had two win two straight and now play a very well-rested Miami team just a couple of days later. This total is low due to the low scoring games of last year as well as Detroit's dominating defensive performance vs. Cleveland in game seven. The extra five days of rest for Miami will equate to more success than normal on the offensive end for them. Miami is healthier than last year as well and they have a new scorer in Antoine Walker. Detroit typically follows losses or close games with great defensive performances while they let up a bit on defense after big wins. They are 15-5 OVER following a blowout win (15+ points) over the past two seasons. They are also 28-16 OVER following an ATS win over the same span. The OVER also hits at a 69% clip (82-37) when set between 180 and 189.5 points if one of the teams has scored 90 points or less 3 straight games while the other team is off a 105+ point performance. Detroit likes to keep things low scoring while Miami likes to score. In a game between a team off 2 days rest vs. a team off 7, I like the more rested team to control the tempo of this game and I see it going OVER the total.