Nba Sports Picks - May 22, 2009
Last night's NBA winner on the Nuggets vs. Lakers UNDER lifted our TOTALS picks to 24-6 during the NBA Playoffs. Overall in the playoffs we are hitting 60% and up +41.5 units. We are still adding to our best NBA season ever as we are +133.6 units since mid-November! We really like tonight's Eastern Conference matchup and go with four plays including a 5-unit selection and a big dog moneyline pick.
Today's NBA Basketball Picks:
Game: Orlando at Cleveland (8:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Orlando +9.5 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)
Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 189 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)
The Orlando Magic did what most thought was impossible - grab a game one win in Cleveland after the Cavs were 43-1 at home in meaningful games this season. Orlando’s win seemed especially out of the ordinary when we all watched Orlando cough-up big leads against Boston twice, and Philadelphia in the first round. How could a team that struggled to get here win a game like that? This time it was Orlando who came back from the dead after a 15-point halftime deficit. Many look at the Orlando performance as a fluke, as they shot 55% and will be hard pressed to put forth a similar performance against what I'm sure will be an angry Cleveland team. I'm in the other camp for this one. That first game was not a fluke. It confirmed a rare and hard-to-find weakness for the Cavs. Cleveland has one Achilles heel that went unnoticed by most during the season and the past couple years. They have been exploited by the best teams, especially those that have size and scoring ability in the paint. Orlando, with Dwight Howard, is exactly the type of team that presents matchup problems inside for the Cavs. As a result, the Magic have won 9 of the last 12 vs. Cleveland, going 11-1 ATS in the process! Fluke? Just look at the points in the paint where Orlando had 50 in game one and in the other three games, they never had less than an eight point advantage. That led to Orlando outscoring the Cavs by over 9 points per game in the four games combined. Other top-level teams with solid bigs also gave Cleveland trouble. Look at the Lakers who beat the Cavs twice. In their win in Cleveland, they outscored the Cavs 62-24 in the paint. In Los Angeles, it was the same story: 42-28 in the paint. Boston beat Cleveland with Garnett, and again it was the same story: 58-22 in the paint. Those are huge numbers, but are invisible to most! To put it in perspective, the last 30 games Cleveland has played Boston, Orlando and LA, the Cavs have won just three games by 9 or more points. So in those 30 games, Cleveland is 3-27 against a line of -9! Their biggest win against Orlando has been seven points. In their last 12 meetings, they never covered nine points! Orlando on the other hand, has beaten Cleveland six times in those 12 meetings by 11 or more! The bottom line here is that Cleveland has real matchup problems vs. Orlando. They struggle with a strong inside presence in Howard - they have no answer for him. They struggle vs. big shooting permiter players like Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu. Was game one a fluke? The more you look into it, no. I like the Magic to cover this big spread again. I also like the UNDER. Game one in this series was a shootout as the teams combined for 213 points. Orlando shot a ridiculous 55.1% from the field as their three-point game came back to them. As a result, we grab 4 full points in value in game two with the line rising to 188.5. I expect both teams to bring a better defensive effort here. That game one was a fluke in one sense - the total points scored. Prior to that game, Cleveland hadn't allowed more than 85 points in a playoff game! They were averaging just 80 ppg allowed in the playoffs. Orlando had allowed 100+ just twice in 13 playoff games, allowing around 90 on average. The teams combined for a 15-6 UNDER mark in the playoffs going into that game. Expect defensive adjustments. This game figures to be more defensive as Cleveland is 24-10 to the UNDER after scoring 100+ points. They are also 28-12 to the UNDER off of one day of rest. Orlando comes into this game at 52-21 to the UNDER after scoring 100+ in their previous game. They are 29-12 UNDER this season vs. teams that average 100+ ppg. The Magic are also 10-1 UNDER the past two seasons following a game in which they made 55%+ of their shots while Cleveland is 11-2 UNDER this steason after scoring 60+ in the first-half of their prior game. The play here is contrarian after seeing these teams light up the scoreboard last game, but I'm looking for things to return to form and for this game to go UNDER. Take the Magic and UNDER here.
Game: Orlando at Cleveland (8:35 PM Eastern)Pick: 2 units on Orlando +520 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 10.4)Pick: 3 units on First Half UNDER 94.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Yes, I like Orlando enough here to go way out on a limb and make an official play on the moneyline. Can they really take both games 1 and 2 in Cleveland? Won't the Cavs be fired-up and ready to play tonight? Yes, the Cavs will be fired up and ready to play... just like they were in game one! The Cavs never take a game off, they didn't let down once vs. Detroit or Atlanta. In potential letdown games, they still won by double-digits. And they didn't let down last game. This is not about letdowns or effort. It's about matchups. And Cleveland is just at a disadvantage on that front vs. Orlando. It's why the Magic have won 8 of the last 11 vs. Cleveland over the past three years straight-up, including four of six here in Cleveland. I am not saying that Orlando wins this game 8 out of 10 times or even 5 out of 10. But, at this line, we have massive value on the Magic. The oddsmakers, with this line, are saying that Orlando has a 16% of winning this game. I peg it at closer to 50%. They are saying that Cleveland should win this game six of seven times it's played yet they have beaten this Orlando team just three times in the last 12 meetings! The Cavs' body of work is fantastic, but when you break it down into their hidden weakness, it is less than ordinary and Orlando has been at the top of the hill when it comes to exploiting the Cavs' one weakness. It is very seldom, if ever, that you get a team that has won 9 of the last 12 games, outscoring their opponents by 104 points in doing so, and get them over +500 on the moneyline. There is far too much value to ignore. Orlando is 22-8 this season vs. teams that shoot at 46%+ from the field. They are 15-5 straight-up vs. good rebounding teams (those averaging 3+ more rebounds per game than their opponents). They are also 8-2 straight-up vs. elite defensive teams (those holding opponents to 43% or less from the field). Meantime, Cleveland is 3-8 this year vs. teams at .700 or better! The value here on Orlando moneyline is too hard to pass up. I also like the first-half UNDER in this game. When these teams have played high-scoring games this season, the next time out they tend to play to their true identity which is half court basketball. They are a combined 80-33-1 to the UNDER after scoring 100+ and with so much on the line, the first half should be very tight, physical, and defensive. Orlando is 10-1 UNDER in the first-half after a game in which they made 55%+ of their shots the past two seasons. They are also 25-14 UNDER in the first-half over that span after allowing 105+ points. This season the Magic are 20-8 UNDER in the first-half when facing a team that shoots 46%+ from the field. I will go with Orlando on the moneyline, as well as the first-half UNDER in this game too.
Note: You can get Orlando +250 for the series right now. If you agree that Orlando has a decent shot at winning this game, then that bet is a no-brainer as well. Even if Orlando losses this game, if you agree that Cleveland has unique matchup problems vs. teams like Orlando, then there's a good chance Orlando wins this series. At +250 you only need to believe they have a better than 30% chance to win this series to make a +250 bet a positive expectation. So if you feel, like me, they have a 50%+ chance of winning this series now, then it's tremendously valuable. Anyway, food for thought for you.
Results: 1-3
NBA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-21-2009
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NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-19-2009
The Lakers are known primarily for an explosive offense. But we learned well from last year in their series vs the Celtics, that if they don't step up their defense, they are not getting the Champ...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-17-2009
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NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-14-2009
The Boston Celtics have stolen two games in this series, overcoming huge deficits to prevail in the end. They have done what they always do, and that is come out playing defense to set the tone. They ...
