darrell,

We hit the 4-star pick again last night pushing the four-star playoff selections to 6-1. Two more four-star plays tonight...

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Good luck , darrell!

Game: Cleveland at Detroit (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 stars on Detroit -11

We have been right on all five of our picks in this series thus far. In game one we knew that Cleveland would be spent after their Washington series and we took Detroit -10.5. In game two, we were on Cleveland to bounce back and keep it respectable. They covered at +11. In game three we jumped on Cleveland as a 4-star pick at +4.5 at home. Cleveland won the game outright. Then in game four, we again were on Cleveland as a 6 point home dog as well as the under. Both picks cashed. Now in game five, I've got another strong opinion on what will happen. After two outright losses as a favorite, Detroit faces a 2-2 series. Rasheed Wallace's guaranteed victory in game four was not to be. This Detroit team is now angry - very angry. After getting fat heads most of the season, they are now feeling disrespected. They are as motivated as a team can be. They want nothing more than to send a message to the Cleveland Cavaliers and the league. This is their house and their year. They are going to put the Cavs in their place tonight. Detroit has had two terrible shooting performances in a row. They shot 33% from the field last game! When I see great teams have that kind of performance in the NBA playoffs, I look for a strong bounce-back in the following game. The Pistons scored 100 points per game at home this season while allowing 89. After two sub-40% FG performances, things will return to normal tonight. This game is not at home for Cleveland and they aren't in a must-win situation so things are very different than game two. The Cals are 14-26 ATS over the past two seasons on the road vs. winning teams including 4-13 vs. elite teams that outscore opponents by 3+ points per game. Detroit is 17-5 ATS at home vs. winning teams (60%+ SU). Detroit in huge blowout here.

We were on Dallas with a four-star pick in game 4 in this series. In that pick we predicted that while it appeared that San Antonio was in the must-win situation, Dallas felt an equally high need to win. They knew that opportunities to go up 3-1 against San Antonio don't come along often. They in no way wanted to give the homecourt advantage back to the Spurs and return to San Antonio tied. It's nearly impossible to win on the road in San Antonio and Dallas knew it. They had to win that game to give themselves a shot at this series. They are now up 3-1 and there is no doubt that this is a must-win for the Spurs. If they lose this game, the team with the best record in the West is done. It's hard to make a case for Dallas to win this game but will they lose by five points? Not too sure about who will cover the spread but I do have a strong opinion on the total. The Spurs have given up 101 points per game in the playoffs despite holding opponents to 90 per game during the regular season. Dallas, in particular, can score against the Spurs. They've averaged 113 per game over the last three games and they averaged 100 ppg vs. the Spurs in the 8 matchups this season. In games in San Antonio, the Mavs average drops to 95 but that's still enough here as I expect San Antonio to get into triple digits. The Spurs offense woke up the past two games in Dallas as they scored 103 and 118. At home this year they averaged 98 ppg but they've averaged 104 per game in the playoffs. Dallas tends to go OVER the total vs. great teams. Over the past three seasons, they are 17-6 OVER vs. top-level teams (70%+ SU) during the second half of the season and 21-9 OVER vs. great defensive teams that allow under 91 points per game. These teams are getting a feel for each other offensively and I see this one going OVER the total.