Free Nba Basketball Picks - May 16, 2008
We hit last night on our sole pick. That puts us at 21-13 for +18.5 units over the past two weeks. We've got three picks tonight.
Today's NBA Basketball Picks:
Game: Boston at Cleveland (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Game Total UNDER 179 -110 (risk 5 to win 4.6)
This is a crucial game six and being that it is in Cleveland, we like the UNDER. The Celtics have struggled offensively throughout the playoffs on the road and have yet to break through to the win column. Their offensive output on the road in the playoffs so far? 93, 92, 100, 84 and 77. Even against the Hawks as you can see they managed just 95 ppg. Versus Cleveland in this building it has dropped to 80.5. The Cavs in the LeBron era have gone UNDER 14-7 in home playoff games. As we go deeper into the series, as we noted yesterday, the defense becomes even more of a focal point. Game 6's in the semi-final round have averaged 18 ppg less than the average of the first five games, and the way these teams have gone through extended droughts, we certainly are not looking for a shootout here. We'll back the history and what we have seen in this series specifically on the offensive end (or, better stated, what we haven't seen on the offensive end). Take the UNDER.
Game: Boston at Cleveland (8:05 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on First Half UNDER 89 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
With all that we have pointed out regarding the game total, we expect Boston to really be focused on the defensive end early on. As it seems like every game, they find themselves in the hole, and down by double-digits early, having to battle their way back, which they haven't been able to do on the road. We also like the fact that when the total is in this range with two winning teams, and the home team (Cleveland) is off back-to-back ATS covers, the first half under has gone 96-45 in the last 141 games. The Cavs are 13-3 UNDER in the second round of the playoffs the past three seasons. This season they are 12-2 UNDER in the first-half vs. opponents at .700 or better and 10-1 UNDER vs. great defensive teams (those allowing under 92 ppg). We will also ride the first-half UNDER in this one.
Game: Los Angeles Lakers at Utah (10:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Utah -4 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
As we've pointed out, the home teams have dominated the playoffs. In the second round in 21 games, only one road team has broken through - Detroit. What team better exemplifies the home court advantage than Utah? They have dropped just five games here, sitting at 41-5. What is even more remarkable than that is how they are winning at home. If you gave them a line of -4 at home all season and in the playoffs to date, the season loss total would rise from 5, to just 7 (39-7 ATS to this line)! That means they aren't playing close games at home all year. The Lakers are playing very well right now, but they still haven't come within 4 points at Utah either. Kobe did not score a 4th quarter point in game five as he remains hobbled. At home, the Lakers can get away with that, but if his back is keeping him to anything less 90%+ here, it will be even more difficult in this spot. It doesn't get any stronger than the Jazz at home and we'll back them to win and cover tonight.
Results: 2-1
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Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-15-2008
We have watched each of these teams dominate each other at home with all the games resulting in double-digit blowouts. San Antonio is, and always has been, a defense-first team, especially in the play...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-14-2008
The Celtics, to be sure will be glad to be back home. They have gotten nothing done in the playoffs on the road, but have dominated at home. Why should things suddenly change here? The men in green ha...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-13-2008
The NBA Playoffs have been completely dominated by home teams, as they have been 38-20-2 ATS, which is a 65.5% cover rate. We certainly don't see that trend changing tonight. The better the teams,...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-12-2008
The Celtics have certainly shown to be a two-faced team in the playoffs. On the road, they simply can't get stops on the defensive end and their offense has struggled as well. At home they have co...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-11-2008
We were on the Jazz in game three and we're all over them again in game four. This team is nearly unbeatable at home - one of the best home teams in recent memory. Yet, we get them as a virtual pi...
