darrell,

We hit again last night with our play on the Clippers. Over the past week and a half we are 8-2 (21-6 on a star basis) as $100 bettors are up over $1,400 during that span. Three NBA picks tonight including a 4-star play which have gone 4-1 so far this postseason.

My NBA Power Rankings are updated weekly and can be found here.

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Good luck , darrell!

Game: Detroit at Cleveland (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 stars on Cleveland +6
Pick: 1 star on UNDER 183

We were all over Cleveland last game with a 4-star pick. As predicted, Detroit came in to that game a bit bored and fat+happy while Cleveland needed to win and was pumped in front of their home crowd. The Cavs won the game outright. With that win they sent a message: we are not laying down. For a young team with no playoff experience, that was a HUGE win. It was a much-needed confidence booster and erased the memory of their game one 27 point loss. That game one loss is now looking more and more like a situational one (Detroit was well rested and Cleveland was off less than 48 hours rest and two over time games). Cleveland now has a chance to even this series with a win. Sure, Detroit is going to be fired up. But, this game is still in Cleveland and getting 6 on the confident home dog is very attractive. The Cavs are now 13-3 ATS at home vs. division oppolnents over the past two seasons while Detroit is 6-14 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games. The Pistons, if you can believe it, are also just 18-30 ATS on the road vs. winning teams the past two seasons. Cleveland is 25-14 ATS at home vs. winning teams over that span including 10-1 vs. elite teams like Detroit that outscore their opponents by 6+ points per game. The public is on Detroit here - expecting bounce-back and revenge. Bettors still remember those first two games (easy Pistons wins) and have heard ad-nauseum form Charles Barkley and Kenny Smith how Detroit is going to win it all this year. The line has already moved a full point from -5 to -6. What the public fails to recognize is the Cleveland is showing heart and they are a pretty damn good team! Cavs plus the points here. Detroit went gone OVER the total six straight times prior to last game while Cleveland went OVER five straight prior to last game. Last game Cleveland clamped down and held Detroit to 77 points. They won the game. Think they will apply the same tactics tonight? I do. Detroit will also look to defense here as they know that's what wins games this time of year. Cleveland is 15-4 UNDER vs. division opponents this year. Both of these teams averaged under 90 points per game allowed vs. division opponents this year and both scored well under their average against division foes. These teams know each other and know the recipe for success: defense. Take the UNDER 183 here as well.

San Antonio is not used to being down 2-1. After losing by just a bucket in game one, the Mavericks have taken two straight including a close one and a blowout in San Antonio. Something tells me this is Dallas' year. While San Antonio appears to need this one more, I can argue that Dallas is more in need of a win. Dallas knows that this is their best shot at winning the West. These shots don't come along often. And, if they drop a game at home, they give the home court advantage right back the the Spurs - not something you want to do given that San Antonio is 38-8 at home. Both teams view this game as a must-win. Again, given that, I like the Mavs at home. Dallas matches up well against San Antonio. They are 21-12 ATS this season vs. great three point teams and 13-4 ATS vs. great defensive teams (those allowing under 92 ppg) during the second half of this season. They are also 17-5 ATS vs. teams that outscore their opponents by 3+ points per game. In other words, San Antonio's strengths don't phase Dallas - they cover the spread against teams that fit the Spurs' mold. That's why Dallas is 5-2 straight up vs. San Antonio here in Dallas over the past three seasons. In the NBA, road underdogs off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog are just 5-28 in games involving two good teams (60%+ SU) over the past decade. Dallas here at home in the virutal pick 'em.