Free Picks Basketball - May 13, 2008
Last night was a great night overall as we finished 10-2 in all sports for an amazing +30 units.
We nailed all three of our NBA picks last night for +9 units, as we scored a rare three wins in one game. Not only did we nail the side pick on Cleveland, but also the first-half total and the game total. Two picks tonight with a 5-unit. We are 10-3 on our last thirteen 5-unit picks and we are up +20.6 units for 63% winning the last week and a half.
Today's NBA Basketball Picks:
Game: Orlando at Detroit (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Detroit -6 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)
The NBA Playoffs have been completely dominated by home teams, as they have been 38-20-2 ATS, which is a 65.5% cover rate. We certainly don't see that trend changing tonight. The better the teams, the better the record has been on their home court. The top two seeds in the East (Boston and Detroit) are 9-2 ATS, while the top two in the West (LA, and New Orleans) are 8-1. Combined, the top teams are an amazing 17-3 ATS in the playoffs on their home court good for cashing in at an 85% rate. The Pistons have cashed 13 of their last 16 on their court and 20 of 28 as a favorite from 5-10.5 points. The long-term trend spells the same dominance for the home team in the conference semifinals, as they have gone 21-9 ATS (70%) in game 5 over the last nine years. The Pistons are the better team and the results this year and years past say the money belongs on them to take this one to the bank.
Game: San Antonio at New Orleans (9:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on New Orleans -3 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)Pick: 3 units on First Half UNDER 93.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
It's hard to ignore the fact that the top two teams in each conference has been covering at an eye-opening rate of 85% (17-3) at home in the playoffs. The Spurs have not had much success when they take to the road against top teams. They have been just 3-10 ATS in this situation since Valentine’s Day. They have put up 102.7 points per game at home in their last 11 against playoff teams, but just 88 ppg on the road. While just two of these opponents reached the century mark against them at home in the last 13, on the road seven of them have reached the century mark in the last 13. New Orleans is 4-1 ATS at home in the playoffs. New Orleans has been wiping-out all top teams at home as they have now won 13 of their last 14 at home over playoff teams and 11 of those have been by double-digits! San Antonio has now lost three straight on this court and they all have been ugly as the average margin has been over 20 points a game. New Orleans takes game 5. We also like the first-half UNDER here. In the first two games in New Orleans, these teams averaged 89.5 first-half points. The Spurs are 16-4 UNDER in the first-half in Game 5s in the playoffs in the Duncan era. Over the past three seasons, they are 18-7 UNDER in the first-half after a home blowout win by 20+ points. The Hornets are 21-11 UNDER in the first-half this season as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. They are also 17-4 UNDER after having lost 2+ of their last three games ATS. They are also 16-4 UNDER this season revenging a road loss including 10-1 UNDER if the loss was by double digits. Hornets and the first-half UNDER here.
Results: 2-1
NBA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-12-2008
The Celtics have certainly shown to be a two-faced team in the playoffs. On the road, they simply can't get stops on the defensive end and their offense has struggled as well. At home they have co...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-11-2008
We were on the Jazz in game three and we're all over them again in game four. This team is nearly unbeatable at home - one of the best home teams in recent memory. Yet, we get them as a virtual pi...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-10-2008
Boston took care of business at home, as they have all playoffs. They completely shut down the Cavs, holding them to 72 and 73 points. In the first half, Cleveland scored 37 and 36 points. But now Bos...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-09-2008
There isn't a hotter offense left standing right now than the LA Lakers. Playoffs or not, this team has one speed: fast! They have now scored 100+ in their last 16 games, and are they are averagin...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-08-2008
The Celtics won game one but they are not happy or satisfied. Garnett was good but overall it was a very lackluster offensive performance in which Paul Pierce and Ray Allen combined for 4 total points...
