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Game: Detroit at Chicago (3:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Game Total UNDER 182 -110

Put a fork in the Bulls. If it's not this game, their season is ending soon. The Pistons are usually gold in close out games and they appear to be on a mission this season. If they do win this, it'll be their second straight series sweep. They came back from a horrible first half last game to completely shut down the Bulls in the second half. They erased a 19-point defecit to win easily by 7 points. That just goes to show what kind of defense this team plays. They have held the Bulls to 74-of-220 shooting in the series. Chicago knows this and we think they will attempt to match defensive intensity. We don't think the Bulls are going to come out and expect a 50% shooting night and win in a shootout. The Pistons will of course stick with what has worked in games 1-3. With Flip Saunders at the helm the past two seasons, the Pistons are 18-5 UNDER on the road to a total between 180 and 185. They are also 9-1 UNDER in their last ten games following three great defensive efforts (holding opponents to 39% or worse shooting). They are also 13-2 UNDER in their last 15 on the road in the second round of the playoffs. Chicago is 14-1 UNDER at home revenging a home loss the past three seasons (another reason to believe Chicago will buckle down and play defense today).

At some point you have to throw out a .500 regular season and look at what this team is doing. In round one, they knocked off the #1 seed and team with the best regular-season record in five games. They are 4-0 in the playoffs at home winning by an average of 17 ppg! Breaking their games into four quarters, they haven't lost a quarter at home since March! They have lost just one home game in the last 77 days (14-1). Their last seven home wins have come by an average of 19 ppg so they are even stepping it up if that's possible. Utah is just 8-20 ATS the past three seasons as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points and they are 1-8 ATS this season off a double-digit road loss. In this series, we have two very different teams. Utah pounds it inside and scores there at will. Golden State basically gives that to them. The Warriors kill you from beyond the arc (hitting 41% in this series). Utah can't defend that. Each of the first three games in this series has seen the home team score 116 or more as it is now apparent neither team is going to be able to stop the other. The total rose 4 points each after games one and two but has gone up just two points here after a game in which 230 points were scored. With the average score in the first games at 234, it looks like the linesmakers have not adjusted enough. Take Golden State and the OVER here.