Nba Basketball Picks - May 12, 2008
We hit with the 5-unit play yesterday pushing our run on NBA 5-unit plays to 10-3. We dropped the other two with the Spurs-Hornets 1H UNDER loss one of the strangest we have seen in a long time. If not a result of fixing, it was just downright strange. With the shot clock turned off and 90 points having been scored in the first half, the Hornets could run down the clock, take a last shot and our UNDER 95 seemed extremely safe. Inexplicably, Gregg Popovich, with his team up 12 points, calls for an forced foul. Two free throws are made, and then the Spurs come back down to the other end and get a 3-point play from Duncan. As the buzzer expires, Chris Paul makes an improbable layup to push the game OVER as 7 points are scored in a situation in which 99% of the time 3 points or less are scored. Oh well, we move on...
Today's NBA Basketball Picks:
Game: Boston at Cleveland (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Cleveland -2 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 181 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Celtics have certainly shown to be a two-faced team in the playoffs. On the road, they simply can't get stops on the defensive end and their offense has struggled as well. At home they have completely shut teams down. Many will be playing the "due" factor here, but based on what we have seen to this point, that is a dangerous way to go into this game, on a "gut" due factor. The Celtics are holding teams to 75 ppg at home, but yielding over 100 on the road. What is 6-0 at home and 5-1 ATS, is 0-4 SU and 0-4 ATS on the road. This is also a place that has shown the home team to be at their best in the playoffs this year, and for many years before. The home team in game four in this round is 19-9 ATS the past ten years if they aren't down in the series 3-0. The Celtics have also played UNDER to the tune of 37-14 after giving up 100 points or more. Cleveland is also 13-4 to the UNDER in their last 17 home games and 13-7 UNDER in the playoffs at home in the Lebron era. We will ride the Cavs to even the series at home, in another ugly, low scoring defensive battle.
Game: Boston at Cleveland (8:05 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on First Half UNDER 90 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
In the three games thus far, 88, 90 and 97 points have been scored in the first half. The Cavs put up 52 last game and that is very out-of-character for a team that averaged 47.5 over the course of the season and 45.6 thus far in the playoffs. Boston has allowed 43.2 per game in the first half in the playoffs and Cleveland has alloowed 43.6. We expect a return to the flavor of the first two games here in which a low-scoring first-half is the result of good defense and weak offense. We do not see the Cavs hitting 54% from the field again. We like the 1HU here.
NBA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-11-2008
We were on the Jazz in game three and we're all over them again in game four. This team is nearly unbeatable at home - one of the best home teams in recent memory. Yet, we get them as a virtual pi...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-10-2008
Boston took care of business at home, as they have all playoffs. They completely shut down the Cavs, holding them to 72 and 73 points. In the first half, Cleveland scored 37 and 36 points. But now Bos...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-09-2008
There isn't a hotter offense left standing right now than the LA Lakers. Playoffs or not, this team has one speed: fast! They have now scored 100+ in their last 16 games, and are they are averagin...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-08-2008
The Celtics won game one but they are not happy or satisfied. Garnett was good but overall it was a very lackluster offensive performance in which Paul Pierce and Ray Allen combined for 4 total points...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-07-2008
We were on the Pistons in the first two game got the W's. We're sticking with these guys again. Detroit has won nine in a row vs. the Magic but here are expected to lose? We think they remain ...
