Free Nba Expert Pick - May 11, 2009

We dropped 3.5 units last night as Big Baby nailed a buzzer-beater to keep us from a winning night. It was our first losing night in the last nine. We're up 125 units over the past six months and +33 units in the playoffs.

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
MLB	67-62 Season-to-Date	52%	+$820
NBA	282-220 last 502 picks	56%	+$12510
NFL	72-44 last 116 picks	62%	+$7320
TOTAL			+$20650

 

Today's NBA Basketball Picks:

Game: Cleveland at Atlanta (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Cleveland -10 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)

When you look at an NBA semi-final round and see a double-digit line posted to the side of the visitor, it makes you look to the home side for value. The problem is that cupboard is bare. This is a Hawks team that has been limited to 85 points per game in the playoffs (80.4 in their last five games) and they are facing the NBA's toughest team in defensive points allowed. They are also facing a team on a mission - a team that has steamrolled to a 7-0 playoff mark, winning by 18 points per game on average. The Hawks have had 12 quarters of basketball against the Cavs in the playoffs and have managed to win just one of them, outside of a 4th quarter when the Cavs were up so big, they sat most of the starters for the period. It just doesn't seem to matter for the Cavs who they play or where, or the situation. If they were posted as a double-digit favorite in every game played in the playoffs and regular season, they would still have the second best ATS record in the NBA! Think about that one. They have faced several possible letdown situations already this postseason and they haven't flinched. They have still delivered a beatdown. The Cavs have beaten playoff-caliber teams all season and really taken care of business versus the marginal ones like Atlanta. Cleveland is 14-5 ATS vs. teams at .500 to .600 including 11-2 ATS in their last 13. Some will say they are due for a fall but the way they are playing this season, it's not likely to happen. They are 17-5 ATS this season after covering the spread in three straight games and a perfect 10-0 ATS after four straight double-digit wins. Laying ten points on the road in the playoffs is normally unheard of, but this Cavs team is breaking all the rules and I like them to deliver another double-digit beatdown tonight.

NBA Basketball Picks Resources:

• View our NBA previous picks here.
• Take a look at our 2008 NBA basketball handicapping preview here.
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• Here we show our basketball Game-of-Day-Preview.
• Hop over to our 2008 NBA prior pick season results here.
• View our NBA ratings here.
• Check out our updated NBA basketball predictions.
• Updated today: basketball odds lines and spreads.
• Take a look at our NBA against-the-spread records here.
• Updated today: blog basketball.

Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-10-2009
We were on the Magic in game three with a very easy 5-unit winner. What's changed for this game? Not much. We have the same line and I still like the Magic. Yes, this is more of a must-win for Bos...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-09-2009
Denver has been smokin' fools and lighting up chumps in these playoffs. Granted, most of their powerful wins have come at home. They lost to New Orleans in their first road game by two points. But...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-08-2009
The Celtics needed a big game after dropping the opener and they got it. They now have to head on the road, having lost the home-court advantage. As we predicted, they showed up big time after losing ...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-07-2009
The Atlanta Hawks are getting no respect, or is it that the Cleveland Cavaliers have now become over-valued over their five straight double-digit playoff wins? The last time these teams met in Clevela...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-06-2009
The Magic are a very good and somewhat underrated team. Despite that fact, I like the Celtics here in game two. The Boston Celtics and the Los Angeles Lakers became just the 14th and 15th teams to los...