Nbapicks - May 11, 2008
We hit last night with our lone play. We're 13-8 (62%) for +12.9 units over the past week. Tonight we have three plays including a 5-unit (9-3 on our last twelve 5-unit NBA picks)...
Today we also feature a Dog Pound article as resident chatterbox J. Mesa is looking for a shoulder to cry on...
Today's NBA Basketball Picks:
Game: Los Angeles Lakers at Utah (3:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Utah -1.5 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)
Pick: 3 units on First Half UNDER 103 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
We were on the Jazz in game three and we're all over them again in game four. This team is nearly unbeatable at home - one of the best home teams in recent memory. Yet, we get them as a virtual pick'em. Think about that. The Jazz are 40-5 here this season, beating opponents on average by 14 points per game. Why aren't we laying more points here? Because of the public's love for the high-flying Los Angeles Lakers and their MVP. This is again a must-win for Utah. They know that there is no way they are stealing two wins in LA. They will again come out with fire and play their asses off. Carlos Boozer finally got back on track last game, scoring 27 points and pulling down 20 boards. He'll be that much more confident today. The Lakers fell victim to what happens to all teams in this building. They got rattled and became a turnover factory. Kobe got his, but his supporting cast fell down. We'll take this 40-5 team in what amounts to a straight-up pick. These teams combined for 95 first-half points in each of games one and three, bracketing a 112 point first-half in game two. The Lakers exploded for 63 in game two and we don't think we'll see that again, especially here in Salt Lake. This total is set quite high and we like the first-half total to come in UNDER. The Jazz brought renewed defensive energy in game three in a must-win game and it lead to success. We see them doing the same here as a result. Under Jerry Sloan, they are 47-33 UNDER in the first half vs. extremely explosive offensive teams like LA (those scoring 103+ ppg). The Jazz are 44-26 UNDER in the first half vs. excellent 3-point shooting teams (36%+) over the past two seasons. The Lakers are 26-13 UNDER in the first-half vs. opponents that outscore their competition by 6+ ppg the past three seasons. This season, the Lake Show is 17-5 UNDER in the first-half after allowing 100+ points in two straight games as they look to turn up the defense after two poor defensive showings. Utah is 35-25 UNDER in the first half to a line over 100. Utah and the first-half UNDER are the plays in this one.
Game: New Orleans at San Antonio (8:05 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on First Half UNDER 95 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
As we predicted, the Spurs, and their championship pride, shone through in game three as they won by 11 points. It was a high-scoring first half - the highest of the series. But, we think this game more resembles the first two in terms of scoring. In those two games, 94 and 85 points were scored in the first half. The Spurs know they need to play defense here which is their calling card at home. Chris Paul and Tony Parker had career games in game three and both defenses will adjust to slow them down a bit here. Tim Duncan is looking old and just isn't finding his shots. He's averaging just 13 ppg thus far. On the season, the Spurs averaged just 44.8 ppg allowed here in this building. They are 15-7 UNDER in the first-half their last 22 games vs. teams at .600 or better. The Hornets are 28-16 UNDER in the first-half following an OVER this season. They are also 15-4 UNDER in the first-half revenging a double-digit loss. That includes a perfect 10-0 UNDER mark on the road in that situation! Finally, the Hornets are 20-9 UNDER in the first-half this season after a game in which 205+ points were scored. We like a low-scoring, high intensity first-half here.
Results: 1-2
NBA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
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