We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Utah at Golden State (9:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Game Total UNDER 217 -110

For those of you on the East Coast (that don't stay up until 2AM), you are missing an incredible series. While these games start late, they are well worth it. Game two was one of the best basketball games we have seen in a long, long time. It was run-and-gun from the start. Utah overpowered the Warriors and outrebounded them by 24 points. But Golden State had a chance to win in regulation thanks to unreal 3-point shooting. They have now taken 71 three-pointers so far in the series, hitting 38%. But poor free throw shooting killed them as Pietrus and Davis missed 3 out of 4 critical free throws at the end of the game when Utah had to foul. Derek Fisher was a great story, coming in late after flying in from out of town. He played great defense against Davis and his sole shot of the game, a 3-pointer in OT to give Utah a six-point lead, was the dagger. After that shot, you could see the air come out of the "never-quit" Warriors players for the first time in the playoffs. Overall, a great game in which all players on the court hustled for the entire game - a rarity in the NBA. So after two losses, both games they could have won, how will Golden State react here at home? We expected to see a 3 to 4 point line but it instead opened at 6.5. It appears that the linesmakers and public are buying into the hype surrounding Golden State's homecourt advantage. With a line that high, we don't see any real value there. We instead turn towards the total which is set at a sky-high 217. The total in game one in this series was set at 209. Game two jumped four points to 213. Now we see another 4-point hike (8 total points compared to game one). Not a big surprise given that 472 points were scored in the first two games. But, don't forget that 18 points in game two came in OT. And, the Golden State players were really banged up in that game. Utah has been pounding this smaller team all series. Baron Davis spent half game two on the floor and was visibily hobbling and grimacing at the end of the game. Off that taxing overtime game, we expect a bit of an offensive letdown by both teams tonight. Sure, points will be scored but we see it coming in at less than 217.