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Nba Handicapping - May 08, 2009Last night we hit our 4-unit pick to notch another winning night. We are now 34-24 for +30.2 units during the NBA Playoffs. Today, we are back on with three NBA premium picks.
 Today's NBA Basketball Picks: The Celtics needed a big game after dropping the opener and they got it. They now have to head on the road, having lost the home-court advantage. As we predicted, they showed up big time after losing game one. The Celtics have shown a lot of heart, but they are also simply not the same team since Kevin Garnett has gone down. If you measure these teams based on Garnett's absence, the Magic would be the No. 2 seed, not Boston. So what it really boils down to is we now have the home team that is the better team at this point in time. The Magic remain undervalued. My Power Ratings indicate this is a very good team that can go deep into the playoffs. They have been very alive and profitable off a loss. Over their last 69 games, they are now 48-20-1 ATS after a loss, good for 70.6%. They are also very good off of a defensive lapse as they have gone 51-21-1 ATS after allowing 100 points or more. That puts two huge indicators that add up to 99-41 ATS mark for Orlando here that have been money at 70.7% ATS. This team is also 24-15 ATS this season vs. winning opponents and 24-11 ATS vs. teams averaging 100+ ppg. They are 14-3 ATS the past two seasons revenging a loss in which they allowed 110+ points! I also like the UNDER here. The Magic have come back strong defensively after allowing 100+ points as they have played to an 18-9 under mark in their 27 games this season following a performance where they gave up the century mark. I look for them to come out in a defensive mode early, to impose their will on the game and frustrate the Celtics. Boston is 27-17 UNDER this season on the road while Orlando is 28-15 UNDER at home! The Celctics are 26-12 UNDER in the first-half the past two seasons when instilled as an underdog. Orlando is 11-3 UNDER in the first half this season when revenging a loss. I will play Orlando and the first-half UNDER tonight.Game: Los Angeles Lakers at Houston (9:30 PM Eastern) Pick: 4 units on Houston +110 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 4.4) Houston shocked the world with a win in game 1. Can they pull off another upset in game 3 to take a 2-1 lead? Yes they can! The Rockets showed in game one (and parts of game two) that they can out-muscle the Lakers and frustrate them. Heck, they lost all four regular season games to LA, but they were leading them all going into the fourth quarter. They broke through in game one of this series to hold on to the lead. They believe they can win and that's half the battle when playing Kobe and company. We felt LA was in a good spot, coming off an upset loss and in need of making a statement last game and played them. Tonight it's Houston that's in the good spot. The Lakers still don't seem "all there." Their playoff games have shown that they are not committing to defense and hard-nosed play every night. Houston is 36-8 on the season at home, holding opponents to 90.5 points per game. This is a tough place to play and it will be rocking. Give me a 36-8 team in this situation. Especially one in the playofs with such a defensive advantage. The Rockets allowed 90.5 ppg on the season here while the Lakers allowed over 100 per game on the road. In this game it will be Houston looking to atone for a humiliating loss. The Rockets are 20-11 ATS this season coming off a loss inclulding 10-2 off a double-digit loss. They are also 14-2 this season at home vs. teams that allow 100+ ppg. I like Houston to win this game. Results: 2-1 NBA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters: NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-07-2009 NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-06-2009 NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-05-2009 NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-04-2009 NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-03-2009 |
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