Nba Sports Picks - May 08, 2008
Well, we faltered last night dropping all the picks. We look to get back on the right side tonight with four selections...
Today's NBA Basketball Picks:
Game: Cleveland at Boston (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Boston -8 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Pick: 4 units on Game Total OVER 177.5 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)
The Celtics won game one but they are not happy or satisfied. Garnett was good but overall it was a very lackluster offensive performance in which Paul Pierce and Ray Allen combined for 4 total points. It was the first game for Allen in eleven years that he didn't score. The Celtics shot 43% and turned the ball over 21 times and still won by four points. Doc Rivers will have his team ready for a much better game two outing. Don't count on Allen and Pierce no-shows again. If they show up, the Celtics can and should blow out a Cleveland team that will continue to struggle offensively. The Cavs are just 14-27 ATS this season after an ATS win and 2-11 ATS following two straight covers. We like the Celtics to win and cover here. After watching the offensive woes of game one, it takes courage to play the OVER in this one. It is, however, where the value lies. Oddsmakers know after game one that the UNDER players are going to be coming out of the woodwork, and this total is now juiced by 4.5 points from game one. The perception is that this will be another very ugly, low-scoring game. But we will run with the facts. The last 36 game 2's in the semi-final round have shown to be on average 5 points higher scoring than game 1's. That is a lot of games with a significant trend. When you add that to the fact that the odds-makers have yielded another 4.5 in live value, then we are looking at 9.5 points from where this game should really be. Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and LeBron James all threw up stinkers in game one. Don't be bank on that again. Allen scored 20+ vs the Cavs in his last four and Pierce was in foul trouble and never got in the flow. The other big factor is Doc Rivers. When he was miked during game one, he was heard telling his players no walking the ball up the court as that is the game Cleveland wants! You can be sure after not getting that message through, the Celts are going to uptempo game two. There was over 40 lost possessions in game one due to turnovers, and more missed shots by LeBron, Allen and Pierce than any other game this season. Look for this one to go OVER the total.
Game: New Orleans at San Antonio (9:35 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on San Antonio -7 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)Pick: 3 units on First Half UNDER 92 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Many are thinking, after New Orleans cleans San Antonio out at home and now getting a big juicy number on the road, that a Hornets bet looks rather tasty. Not to us. Remember that they beat Dallas at home by double digits both games, and by almost the identical total points. They fell in game three on the road by 10. This San Antonio team has been around for a while and they won't panic. In fact they will kick it up a notch at home. This is a team that is 28-15 ATS at home in the playoffs in the Duncan era. Many will look upon the Hornets record on the road, and feel they will win this one or stay within striking distance. They went 24-15-2 ATS on the road, but that doesn't tell the real story. In contrast, it creates a false sense of security for their backers. They were 18-3-2 ATS on the road vs teams allowing 100+ points a game, and 6-12 ATS on the road vs teams allowing under 100. The Hornets produced 100.9 ppg this season, but against teams that allowed under 100 on the road, they score just 91 ppg! San Antonio averaged just 95 ppg this season, but at home, vs teams that allow under 100, they were better, at 97 ppg! This will be another double-digit blowout, but this time, San Antonio will end up in the win column. We think a motivated Spurs team will come out with intense defensive pressure to start this game. They allowed opponents just 44.5 ppg in the first half at home this season, a big reason they were 37-7 here. New Orleans' offensive output drops on the road and they will struggle here. The Hornets are 20-10 UNDER in the first half this season following an OVER. They are also 21-9 UNDER in teh first half vs. teams at .600+ this season. We like the UNDER in the first half as well as the Spurs to cover.
Results: 2-2
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Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-07-2008
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NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-04-2008
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NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-03-2008
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