Nbapicks - May 06, 2008
We hit both picks last night pushing us up to 7-1 the past three days for +18.8 units. We'll be the first to admit we got lucky on the Detroit cover. But after some of bad our luck during these playoffs, we'll gladly take it. Tonight we have two picks in the game...
Today's NBA Basketball Picks:
Game: Cleveland at Boston (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 183 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)
While James gets all the press, there are a couple of other reasons Cleveland had success vs. Washington. First, they dominated the glass to the tune of a 7.5 rebound per game advantage. Second, they were able to get scoring from others beyond LeBron as the Cavs had five double-digit scorers for the series. Things have been much different for Cleveland vs. the NBA top five defensive clubs this season. Detroit, Boston, San Antonio, Houston and New Orleans finished as the top five NBA teams in points allowed per game. The Cavs could do nothing vs. these teams offensively this year, and the positive rebound margin they enjoyed vs the Wizards was negative vs. these other clubs. Also, against the NBA elite defensive teams in seven games, Cleveland never had five players get to double-digits. In fact they had just just two players other than LeBron top 14 points! The Cavs consequently, averaged only 77.9 ppg in these seven games, shooting just 40% from the floor and 28.8% from three. The rebound surplus of 7.5 per game they enjoyed vs the Wizards was a -4.1 deficit vs the elite defensive teams. Even King James himself could muster only 22 ppg, compared to his 30 vs the Wiz. The offensive problems for the Cavs actualy showed itself vs. all the top playoff teams (.600 or better). Since November 28th, they played 11 games on the road vs these teams, and the UNDER prevailed in 10 of them! The Cavs can play some playoff defense, but they really struggle to find the bottom of the net vs top defensive teams. The Celtics showed what defense is all about on their home court, holding Atlanta to 77 ppg in the four games at the Garden. It has been the norm for the Celts at home all season. They have had 14 games vs playoff teams that have a winning percentage of over .600 at home, and 10 of the 14 have gone UNDER. The Celtics have allowed just 85 ppg to these teams. Playoff games become even more of a half-court game, and we look for this to fall well UNDER the posted total.
Game: Cleveland at Boston (8:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on First Half UNDER 92 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
We also like the first-half UNDER here for many of the reasons stated above. In addition to those, past history backs us up here. As an underdog this season, the Cavs are 24-14 UNDER in the first half. They are also 21-11 UNDER to a first half total between 90 and 95 and 26-15 UNDER in the first half vs. winning opponnets. The past three seasons, the Cavs are 13-2 UNDER in the first half vs. top defensive teams (those allowing under 92 ppg) and 27-8 UNDER vs. teams at .700 or better. Boston is 18-6 UNDER in the first half this season vs. elite teams (those outscoring their opponents by 6+ ppg). The Celts are also 21-12 UNDER in the first half vs. teams that take 18+ three-pointers per game. We like this one to stay in the 80s in the first half.
NBA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-05-2008
Detroit seems to be back. They faltered against Philadelphia early as their "going through the motions" proved not to be enough. After getting down 2-1 to the Sixers, they have won four stra...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-04-2008
Talk about the Tale of Two Cities. This series has been a contrast in wills, home and away. The Hawks have surprised everyone taking the Celtics three straight at home, but have not been able to ...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-03-2008
The Pistons' stubbing of their toe in round one vs. Philly gives us a couple of points of line value here. In losing game one at home and trailing 2-1 at one point, they lost a lot of backers. The...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-02-2008
While thus far this has been a home team series, with each team winning and covering all games at home, we look for things to turn here. The Pistons gained control of their series with their game five...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-30-2008
Get rid of the Wizards already. Unless you are from Washington, how can you like this team? They have proven themselves to be trash talking thugs. And losing ones at that. DeShawn Stevenson took out L...
