Free Picks Basketball - May 04, 2008
Started the 2nd round with a 2-0 day good for +5.4 units. We come back with four picks today including a 5-unit play.
Today's NBA Basketball Picks:
Game: Atlanta at Boston (1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Boston -14.5 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)
Talk about the Tale of Two Cities. This series has been a contrast in wills, home and away. The Hawks have surprised everyone taking the Celtics three straight at home, but have not been able to muster a challenge on the road. So why should things be different today? The Celtics just don't play with anywhere near the defensive intensity on the road, as they do at the Garden. The Hawks produced an average of 100+ at home, while they haven't gotten past 85 in Boston, and that is now 10 straight for the Celtics opponents at home under 100. As much as this looks like a stroy to see the Hawks in a game 7, consider this. The Celtics last 11 on the road have resulted in a 6-5 record with not a single win that would cover this pointspread. By contrast, their last 11 wins at home have been by an average margin of 20.6 ppg! Ten of those 11 cover this pointspread, and the last seven teams have scored an average of just 80.3 ppg! It's a Garden Party!
Game: Utah at Los Angeles Lakers (3:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Utah +7.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 213 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Lakers cruised past the Nuggets in four. They aren't facing the Nuggets today. Sure, LA is the better team on the court today. But, Utah is a much, much better team than the Nuggets. Denver played no defense and had a history all season of crumbling against good opposition. Utah is more talented, more committed to defense, and deeper. They struggled a bit with Houston but we think that helps them here vs. a Lakers team that has yet to be challenged. After that series sweep and an MVP award for Kobe, we wouldn't be surprised to see the Lakers a bit overconfident. Utah struggled on the road for most of the season but at the end of the year, they put that behind them. They held the Rockets to 88 ppg and they should have much more success than Denver at slowing down the Lakers. The Jazz are 29-14 ATS this year vs. winning teams (20-6 in their last 26). They thrive vs. big three-point shooting teams like LA (21-7 ATS vs. teams making 6+ threes per game. They can also play in shootouts as they are 34-23 ATS this season in games with a total of 200 or more. The Jazz lost to Los Angeles 106-95 at home in March and they are 16-5 ATS this season seeking revenge. We expect a focused and deep Utah team to keep this game closer than this large spread. We also like the UNDER. As mentioned earlier, these teams combined for just 201 points in their last matchup and this being the playoffs, we expect heightened intensity. Utah knows their shot here is to keep this from getting too high scoring and they will play accordingly. The Jazz this season are 26-16 UNDER vs. teams that attempt 18+ three pointers per game. They are also 15-4 UNDER in the first game of a playoff series under Jerry Sloan. Sloan will bring the defense. We like the Jazz and the UNDER.
Game: Utah at Los Angeles Lakers (3:35 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on First Half UNDER 105.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
We also like the first-half UNDER for many of the same reasons. Los Angeles went off vs. Denver in their opening round offensively. But the Jazz will provide a tougher defensive test. In their series with the Rockets, the Jazz games averaged 89.2 ppg in the first half. The last 25 times these two teams have met in LA, 19 have gone UNDER in the first half. On the road, Utah is 27-17 UNDER in the first half this season. They are also 26-12 UNDER off a home win (18-9 if the win was by double-digits). This line is very high for a first-half and we'll take it to go UNDER.
Results: 3-1
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Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
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