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Wunderdog Sports Picks Newsletter
NBA Basketball Premium Edition
May 04, 2006

darrell,

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Missed with Cleveland yesterday as they blew a 7 point lead very late in regulation...

My NBA Power Rankings are updated weekly and can be found here.

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Good luck , darrell!

The Wunderdog


Complimentary Picks

Game: New Jersey at Indiana (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 stars on Indiana -1

I beleive the Pacers are a strong play today as this is a must win game 6 for them. If the Pacers wish to prolong this series, they must find a way to win this game and they will have the luxury of trying in front of theeir home crowd. After losing game five, the Nets gained an edge on this series, but the Pacers have shown that they can hang tough with New Jersey both in this series as well as in the regular season when they won the series 2-1. Keep in mind that the Nets are 2-8-1 against the spread in their last 11 road playoff games as this game is a basic pick'em. The Pacers are 4-0 of late following a straight up loss and 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings.


Game: Miami at Chicago (8:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 stars on Chicago +2

The Chicago Bulls have shown their fans as well as the basketball world that they belong in this series. Many had them written off as losing in five games, yet this team has taken two games from the Heat in convincing fashion as they have not looked intimiated or deflated in the early going. The Bulls have won both games at home as these teams have just been exchanging home victories. Chicago looks to continue that trend in the hopes of sending this game to a 7th and final game in Miami. The Bulls are a remarkable 8-1-1 agianst the spread in their last 10 games as an underdog, 4-1-1 ATS in their last six playoff games and 13-3 ATS after following a straight up loss. The Heat on the other hand are 0-9 against the spread after an ATS win and 0-3 ATS on the road. This series has become relatively predictable to this point with the home team dominating and there is no reason to beleive why it will not continue to happen again. Sure, Miami won big last game but that was a great situation for them - coming home after two big losses. The Bulls here at home.


Game: Phoenix at Los Angeles Lakers (10:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 stars on OVER 204.5

I love the OVER in this game. If the Phoenix Suns are to stay in this series and would like to take this series back to Phoenix for a game 7, they must win today. By the same token, if the Lakers are to win this series, it has to be today in front of their home crowd. They understand that the edge they acquired by winning the road game in Phoenix would be for nothing if this series indeed does go to a game 7 that would clearly favor the Suns at home. Both games that have been played in LA had the Lakers coming out on top. I think the Lakers win this game but I see Phoenix trying to get back to what go them this far - pushing the pace and scoring a lot. I beleive defense will take a step back this game as both teams will have a strong urgency and points will come in a flurry as this will be a traditional West Coast shootout. Steve Nash understands the strength of the Suns and it is run and up and down as they did in game 5 and regardless if they lose this series or not, he and Coach D'Antoni will make sure if they do lose, it is with their style of play. I look for the Lakers to keep up and match this intensity. Throw in a couple of situations that I have that indicate OVER here and we have a strong play. Visiting teams off a big blowout win facing a home team that scores a lot, in a game with a high total like this one, see the OVER at about a 68% clip. Also, home playoff teams off a poor defensive effort go OVER a lot in situations like this. OVER the 204.5 here.


Resources

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How much to bet? I recommend 1% of your bankroll for every star. A one-star pick = 1% of bankroll. A five-star pick = 5% of bankroll. It is strongly recommended that you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks. Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily over the long-term. For more, see my write-up on Bankroll Management.
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Good Luck.

The Wunderdog

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