We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Denver at San Antonio (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on San Antonio -8

There are several things that come into play here. Tim Duncan has been around a lot of playoff games and as he ages, the spots to come up big are chosen carefully. The fewer games San Antonio plays, the better they perform. They are now 16-4 ATS when they play six or less games in 14 days. That is the Duncan factor. Second, when it is time to play defense, like they do all year and especially in the playoffs they become tougher, as their defense imposes its will. They have been 44-23 ATS after three straight UNDERS or more. Third, the Spur’s defense has certainly had an impact on Denver this season. If you throw out the last game of the season when no one played, the last six games Denver managed just 87-points per game (PPG). That is not conducive to Denver faring well, as they are just 1-10 ATS this season scoring UNDER 90 points and just 3-14 ATS when they score in the 90s. That leaves them at 4-24 ATS when they score under 100 points. That is bad news here for Nugget’s fans. San Antonio has allowed just one opponent the entire season to score more than 100 points at home! San Antonio puts this one away.

The Lakers are really fortunate to even be here as they finished 16-27 down the stretch, and an even more revealing 7-18 against playoff teams. Kobe can only do so much, but Phoenix has answers and mismatches all over the floor as well as on the bench. They also learned something valuable last year. They led the Lakers 3 games to 1, and let it slip away, so you can be sure they are going for the jugular tonight, and will leave nothing to chance. The Lakers are not going to try and get into a track meet like they did in game two, where Phoenix put up 126 points. They will try to shorten the game and try and allow Kobe to do his thing as the shot clock winds down. We look for a dominating performance by Phoenix to close out the Lakers, which should also mean no garbage points at the end to run the total up, so we will also play UNDER.