Nba Sports Picks - March 31, 2008
1-2 yesterday. Over the last three and a half weeks our NBA picks are hitting 62% (57-35) for +60.5 units. Three more picks today with another 5-unit selection!
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Today's NBA Basketball Picks:
Game: Miami at Indiana (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 194 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
This might represent the lowest an NBA franchise has fallen in a long time. A lot has to do with injuries, as the Heat now have a roster of two veterans in Davis and Blount and seven other players with a combined four years NBA experience. The average for the Heat over the last seven games is an unbelievable 74.7 points per game. Four of five starters shoot 43% or less and the four bench players have literally 0 NBA experience, and the roster is down to nine players. The Heat play slow and give up just 94.3 ppg with the currently configured roster. This game will be hard pressed to approach 200 total points and we will ride the UNDER here.
Game: Atlanta at Memphis (8:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Memphis +3 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
Memphis has been just 11-37 in their last 48 games. They certainly do a lot of losing, but when you break them down it is apparent where the wins come from. Out of those 11 wins in 48 games, eight have come against sub-.500 teams at home. This is when they are actually a very good team. They are 10-2 at home against the under .500 teams in their last 12. They are winning these games by an average margin of 10.8 ppg, and they are also 4-0 SU as an underdog in this spot. Atlanta certainly has struggled on the road and against the under .500 teams that struggle has shown as well. The Hawks are just 2-9 SU on the road vs. the worst of the NBA in their last 11 games. They have been outscored by 5.3 ppg overall, and 9.8 ppg in the 11 losses. Wrong team favored in this one.
Game: Denver at Phoenix (10:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 5 units on Phoenix -5.5 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)
The NBA West is loaded with good teams and there are nine teams that are all playing .600+ basketball to just eight playoff spots. It is hard to separate these teams from each other, but under certain situations the separation is there to be found. Denver has won five-straight games, and really appears to be on an up-tick, but there is a caveat to what you apparently see. The Nuggets are 18-2 SU in their last 20 at home, which includes an impressive 8-2 SU mark over .600+ teams. The road is where they really struggle against the top teams. Overall they are 15-21 on the road, but that doesn't tell the whole story. They are just 1-14 SU against .600+ teams and 4-11 ATS. They aren't just losing these games they are getting buried to the tune of 115.5 to 101.1 or 14.4 ppg on average, dropping 11 of the 15 by double-digits! We know they have won five straight, but we also consider the fact that they have come into these games on the road against .600+ teams four other times this season on a three-game or more winning streak and lost all of them by double-digits, and have also been 2-7 ATS if they are on a multiple game winning streak. The average line in these games has been +6.5, and it is obvious the oddsmakers have shaved a point expecting the public to react to Denver winning five straight, which we have shown, isn't a factor so there is added line-value. Phoenix is entering winning 9 of 11, so they are playing at their best down the stretch. The last three teams with a .600+ record that have come to Phoenix have all lost by seven or more. Until Denver proves they can compete on the road vs. the NBA's top teams, all the value is on the other side and we'll ride the Suns at home in what should be yet another double-digit Denver road loss.
Results: 2-1
NBA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-30-2008
The mindset of winning can overcome a lot of things, and Houston is a case in point. They ran off one of the best streaks in NBA history, but when Yao went down, everyone immediately thought it would ...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-29-2008
When these teams met in Phoenix in January, the Nets were run out of the building, losing by 24 points. Phoenix is off an impressive win in Philly. So, the public is all over the Suns here. We'll ...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-28-2008
The public loves the high-scoring team, and the odds-makers react in kind. The Phoenix Suns are among the highest scoring teams in the NBA, and with that comes a lot of action backing them. The Sixers...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-27-2008
The Mavericks have played very poorly against the NBA's best teams, but have dominated the weak teams. Over their last 28 games have barely been a .500 team, posting a 15-13 record. They are 14-1 ...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-26-2008
This could be a first-round playoff preview as Detroit is likely to finish as the #2 seed and Toronto as the #7. Detroit got to 50 wins with a gutsy win over Phoenix (with Rip Hamilton in the lineup) ...
