Free Basketball Pick - March 29, 2008
We were 0-2-1 last night, dropping 7 units. We are up 60 units over the past three weeks at 55-33. Tonight we look to bounce back with three picks including another 5-unit.
Today's NBA Basketball Picks:
Game: Phoenix at New Jersey (7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on New Jersey +6 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
When these teams met in Phoenix in January, the Nets were run out of the building, losing by 24 points. Phoenix is off an impressive win in Philly. So, the public is all over the Suns here. We'll go the other way, taking the revenge-minded New Jersey in what could be considered a letdown game for Phoenix. After playing Houston, Detroit, Boston and the resurrgent Sixers, how can Phoenix get up for this one? Meanwhile, we expect inspired play by the Nets who were downright embarrassed by this team last time out. New Jersey is playing good right now. They have recently beaten Cleveland, Utah and Atlanta, playing winning basketball over their last nine games. They have a winning record at home and have found their offense of late. We think New Jersey has a distinct motivational edge and they have a team capable of not getting blown out so we'll take them plus the points here.
Game: Cleveland at Detroit (7:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 184.5 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)
It is hard to believe LeBron James has been in the NBA for five years already. Five years ago also marks the time that this series became an outright war. These teams get our vote for playing the ugliest games in the NBA, and the odds-makers have yet to fully catch on. Throw out what they have done recently, because when they get together, no one scores. These teams have met 18 times in the regular season in the "LeBron" era. They have played 16-2 to the UNDER, with one OVER coming in OT, and the other sneaking over the total by 1.5 points. They aren't just squeaking under the total either. The average margin UNDER the total has been 15ppg! If the total was posted at 170 for every game these teams played there would still be 61.1% of their games going UNDER. They have averaged just 171.5 ppg when they square off. These teams have topped 181 just once in their last 15 meetings (OT not included), yet the posted totals have averaged 185 in their last 13 meetings. Until the odds-makers figure this out, and shy away from the computer generated line, this one is chock full of value!
Game: Golden State at Denver (9:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 5 units on Denver -7 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)
Denver is playing with purpose right now, and it has translated into a superb 9-1 record in their last 10 at home. They are not just winning. They are winning big, as the last six at home have resulted in double-digit blowouts. It also must be noted that this hasn't been done against the bad teams. They beat Dallas by 13, Toronto by 32, San Antonio by 13, Phoenix by 13 and the NBA's best Celtics by 6! Revenge could be a motivator here for Denver, but nothing is more motivating than looking at the standings and seeing 0.5 games between you and the playoffs. Golden State is just a notch above them for the 8th and final spot. This is a great matchup for the Nuggets as they perform very well vs. high-scoring teams. They are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 vs. teams that make 6+ three pointer per game. Denver is on a mission, they sit at 23-13 ATS at home this season, and they rolling over good teams at home right now. We expect more of the same tonight.
NBA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-28-2008
The public loves the high-scoring team, and the odds-makers react in kind. The Phoenix Suns are among the highest scoring teams in the NBA, and with that comes a lot of action backing them. The Sixers...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-27-2008
The Mavericks have played very poorly against the NBA's best teams, but have dominated the weak teams. Over their last 28 games have barely been a .500 team, posting a 15-13 record. They are 14-1 ...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-26-2008
This could be a first-round playoff preview as Detroit is likely to finish as the #2 seed and Toronto as the #7. Detroit got to 50 wins with a gutsy win over Phoenix (with Rip Hamilton in the lineup) ...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-25-2008
San Antonio's offense is average at best while their defense is very good. OVer their last five games they have stepped it up, holding opponents to 44.0 ppg in the first half. Orlando has also ste...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-24-2008
We said it last time out when we faded the Knicks. They are a bad team, but now a bad team that has packed it in! Evidence shines brightly as the Knicks have fallen behind in the first quarter of...
