Basketball Predictions - March 28, 2008
We nailed our 5 unit play on Denver last night, our fifth 5-unit winner out of hte last six. After allowing the Mavs to score 39 in the first quarter, they held them to 35 in the entire second half! We're 55-31 for +67.1 units the past three weeks. Tonight we have three picks including another 5-unit play.
Today's NBA Basketball Picks:
Game: Phoenix at Philadelphia (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Philadelphia +2.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
The public loves the high-scoring team, and the odds-makers react in kind. The Phoenix Suns are among the highest scoring teams in the NBA, and with that comes a lot of action backing them. The Sixers have been doormats in the NBA for quite a while now, and with that comes no respect. Now the facts and their associated value. The Sixers are a completely changed team over their last 24 games. They are 19-5 while the Suns are 14-10. If this was 24 games into the season, think for a second what this line would be? Philly would be the favorite at home. So what has changed for the Sixers? Why are they so good now? The first 44 games they went 19-23-2 ATS, scoring 100 points just 11 times (25%). Their last 28 games, they have reached the century mark 18 times or 64.2% of the time. Their offense produced 92.9 ppg over the first 44 games versus 105.8 ppg in the last 28. So did they decide to play uptempo? No. Their defense and points allowed is the same! They have come together offensively, and have become a good team. Those 18 games where they scored 100 points, they are 17-1 SU and the game they lost, they covered! The total is set at 218 for this game, indicating Philadelphia is likely to score 108, so 100 is certainly a high percentage opportunity. The reson they are 17-1 when they score 100 is they are now a high scoring team that also plays defense. That is not the case with Phoenix. The Suns are 9-16-1 ATS the last 26 games they have given up 100+ points. Since their surge, the Sixers have played nine games with a total of 200+, and have gone 7-2 ATS. Their first 44 games they played five with a total of 200+ and went 0-5 ATS. They have played nine games with a total in the 190s since their surge, and are 8-1 ATS, while they were 5-9 ATS before. That means they are now 15-3 ATS in games expected to be higher scoring, while before their offense got going they were 5-14 ATS in these games. Certainly the wrong team is favored here, and we will back the Sixers.
Game: New Orleans at Boston (7:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on First Half UNDER 98 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Boston has beaten down most teams this season. They haven't needed much in the way of revenge factor to motivate them. But they will be out for it here. On Saturday in New Orleans they had a 15 point lead but blew it and lost by 7 points. We were on the Hornets in that one as they are a good team that doesn't get enough respect. David West torched them for 37 points. As a result of that game, we look for the Celtics to clamp down early on defense. New Orleans loses about 4 ppg on offense on the road as compared to home. We think Boston will really hold the Hornets down here and they won't let West beat them up again. Both teams are off an OVER and the Hornets are 24-10 UNDER in the first half off an OVER this season. Boston is the same, going 20-11 UNDER in the first half following a game that went OVER. Boston is 41-30 UNDER in the first half overall this season including 16-7 when the total is in this range. The Celts are also 22-13 UNDER in the first half this season vs. winning teams and 20-9 UNDER vs. teams that score 100+ ppg.
Game: Charlotte at Seattle (10:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 5 units on Seattle +3 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)
Seattle is 2-16 in their last 18 games. They recently hit rock bottom giving up 168 to the Nuggets, a performance that will stick in the gambler's memory for a while, backing most off the Sonics. We have successfully faded them quite a bit of late but we finally think there is value - a lot - in taking them tonight. Seattle is just 8-24 straight-up over their last 32 but superb at 18-13-1 ATS over those same 32 games. They have now covered three in a row. Charlotte is now favored on the road for just the 4th time in franchise history. A bad team with seven road wins on the season is deemed superior to another team on the road in the NBA? A team that is a disaster as a favorite all together going 4-9 ATS in their last 13? This is the same team that went to Memphis about 10 days ago as a favorite vs a Memphis team that was 1-14 in their last 15 games, and lost by 18. The reality is Seattle is 11-24 at home in the tough West, and Charlotte is 7-28 on the road vs the weaker East. The Bobcats are just 12-21 ATS overall on the road this year including 1-8 ATS in games with a total set at 200+. They are also coming into this game off a big emotional road upset of the Lakers. This is also a team that has had losing streaks of seven, five and five games in their last 26, and is 1-4 ATS in their last five. So they aren't exactly playing at a high level. We'll grab the Sonics as a highly valued home dog.
NBA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-27-2008
The Mavericks have played very poorly against the NBA's best teams, but have dominated the weak teams. Over their last 28 games have barely been a .500 team, posting a 15-13 record. They are 14-1 ...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-26-2008
This could be a first-round playoff preview as Detroit is likely to finish as the #2 seed and Toronto as the #7. Detroit got to 50 wins with a gutsy win over Phoenix (with Rip Hamilton in the lineup) ...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-25-2008
San Antonio's offense is average at best while their defense is very good. OVer their last five games they have stepped it up, holding opponents to 44.0 ppg in the first half. Orlando has also ste...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-24-2008
We said it last time out when we faded the Knicks. They are a bad team, but now a bad team that has packed it in! Evidence shines brightly as the Knicks have fallen behind in the first quarter of...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-23-2008
Dallas has lost two straight and can't afford to lose a third in a row here. They ran into the freight train called the Boston Celtics in their last game, losing by 4, despite a good game by Nowit...
