Free Nba Basketball Picks - March 27, 2009

Over the past four and a half months, our NBA picks are 213-171. Thanks to Wednesday night's 5-unit winner, we are now 7-3 over our last ten 5-unit picks. Today, we really like the schedule and are going with eight plays including another 5-unit pick!

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Today's NBA Basketball Picks:

Game: Charlotte at Philadelphia (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Philadelphia -200 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 1.5)

The Charlotte Bobcats have done a much better job of late and are a vastly improved team, but they still have trouble finding the win column on the road. The Bobcats have just 11 road wins on the season, but when they step on the court on the road vs. a team with a .500+ record, they have found the win column just twice all season. The Sixers are also a much-improved team, and have won seven of their last 10, but more importantly, they are beginning to understand why winning on their home court is important, and have taken the last four. Charlotte could hang in this one, but their track record of winning this type of game is poor, so I'll take Philadelphia on the moneyline.

The Raptors are an underachieving team that seems to have quit. The sure sign of a team throwing in the towel is shown by their lack of commitment to the defensive end of the floor. The Raptors have allowed 100+ points in 12 of their last 15 games, or 80% of the time. To compare that, they allowed 100+ in just six of their previous 20, or 30% of the time. That says this team has quit. The Oklahoma City Thunder isn't a team that scores free and easy, but when you measure them on the road vs. the weaker teams that are under .500, they have averaged 107.4 points per game in their last nine. They have certainly scored against this type of team and the fact the Raptors are disinterested on the defensive end, gives the call to the OVER in this one.

The Celtics are getting healthier, and when they play on the road vs. teams with a winning record, they always bring their defense. The Celtics have played under against the .500+ teams on the road to a mark of 14-4 on the season including a game in Atlanta played in the low 170s. It runs their UNDER road-tally against .600+ home teams to 20-6. Atlanta has quietly snuck into the NBA top 10 in fewest points allowed per game, and have done a much better job on the defensive end. They have bounced back after a loss by going 11-5 to the UNDER as they are beginning to understand the importance of defense. I like this one to finish UNDER the total.

The Knicks are a team that is a no-show against the poor teams in the NBA as witnessed by their last three at home vs. teams with a losing record. They were favored in all three, and lost all three straight up. It has been a different tale vs. the good teams. The Knicks own five straight-up wins as an underdog at home against .500+ teams in the last two months. Overall, they are 26-10-1 ATS when posted as an underdog either home or away. The Hornets are not buzzing after a loss; they are just 1-6 ATS after a losing endeavor. I like the Knicks in this one as well as the OVER. The Knicks went 26 games in a row over 100 points, then hit a bit of a slump, but are over 100 again three straight times. The Hornets aren't as defensive on the road as they have allowed 100+ just six times on the season at home, but 12 times on the road. The Knicks have played 16 of their last 21 as a dog to the OVER, as well as 11 of their last 15 at home have gone to the OVER. I’m on the Knicks and the OVER here.

The LA Clippers have been dreadful on the road. They aren't just losing games, they are getting manhandled. Their last 19 road games have seen them lose by 12 or more in 15 of the 19, or 79% of the time! The Spurs own 14 double-digit home wins of their own, and after a win, the Clippers are 17-35 ATS and just 1-6 ATS as a dog of 11 or more in their last seven. San Antonio wins and covers here.

Dallas looked like a team on the decline early in the season, but they sure have changed some minds about that. They are dominating their home court, where they have fallen to just one team, Boston, in their last 15 games standing at 14-1. Denver has been struggling to the tune of a 2-7 mark over their last nine games, and has been nothing but an average .500 road team all season. That record shrinks to 7-12 when they are facing a winning team on the road. Dallas has been money at home, so  I will back them on the moneyline here.

The odds are certainly stacked well against the Memphis Grizzlies when it comes to winning on the road. The Grizzlies are just 5-29 on the road this season, and taking it back to last year, they are just 11-58 in their last 69 road tilts. Sacramento may not be the best team in the league, but they have piled up as many home wins this season as the Grizzlies have on the road - in almost two years, so that makes the short odds here favorable on the moneyline, and I'll give the Kings the call on the moneyline.

Results: 3-5

NBA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Take a look at our basketball prior picks here.
• Here we show our 2008 season NBA betting preview.
• Take a look at our basketball sportsbook here.
• Hop over to our basketball Game Analysis here.
• View 2008 NBA season prior picks here.
• Hop over to our NBA worst teams here.
• View our basketball handicapping here.
• Take a look at our NBA odds and lines here.
• Take a look at our NBA basketball ATS records here.
• View our updated blog basketball picks.

Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-25-2009
I find it impossible to back a team as a favorite that has underachieved for two seasons, has gone 2-9 in their last 11 games and apparently has thrown in the towel on another less than inspiring seas...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-24-2009
The Spurs opened the season slow and then went on a tear. Since then, the rigors of a long season and injuries have seen them fall to just 6-7 over their last 13 games. They are losers of three of the...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-22-2009
The Nets need to keep winning to have a shot at the playoffs so I expect a top-notch effort from them tonight. The truth is, they need this game more than Cleveland, who now has a full 4-game lead ove...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-21-2009
The Cleveland Cavaliers have been roaring at home, coming into this game against the Hawks at 31-1 on the season. They are the best defensive team in the league in points allowed, and at home they are...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-20-2009
The Kings have not been competitive in the win column on the road, as they come in with a dismal 4-31 road record. They have been highly competitive against the number vs. the teams with a losing reco...