Free Nba Basketball Picks - March 26, 2008
We went 1-1 last night and stand at 66% the past two and a half weeks (+69.2 units). Tonight we have six picks...
Today's NBA Basketball Picks:
Game: Detroit at Toronto (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Detroit +1.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
This could be a first-round playoff preview as Detroit is likely to finish as the #2 seed and Toronto as the #7. Detroit got to 50 wins with a gutsy win over Phoenix (with Rip Hamilton in the lineup) on Monday. It was their seventh straight 50-win season. Toronto is in a free fall having lost seven of eight games and Detroit has already beaten this team twice by an average of 15 ppg! Revenge you say? When you are this out-classed, it doesn't matter much. Detroit has a better road record than does Toronto at home! Toronto has only covered once in their last five home games and once in their last seven games following a loss. Detroit is the better team, regardless of location and should win this one.
Game: Indiana at New Jersey (7:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Indiana +5.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Both of these teams have poor records but a shot at the playoffs, as they chase the Atlanta Hawks for the #8 spot. We were on New Jersey over the Knicks in their last game, but that was more a fade of New York than an endorsement of New Jersey. The Nets are just 4-9 in March. Meanwhile, Indiana is actually winning. They played New Orleans tight yesterday. It was an (expected) loss but they had won four straight prior to that including an upset over Chicago. They have gone 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven vs. Eastern Conference foes. New Jersey is .500 at home this season but just 13-21 ATS. They are allowing teams to eat them up of late, averaging 107.2 ppg allowed over their last five. With Indiana's offensive prowess (110 ppg over last five), they are going to score early and often here. The Nets have covered just four of their last fourteen games coming off a 100+ point performance. They are 2-6 ATS in their last eight following an ATS win and 1-7 SU in their last eight off a win. We like the live dog here.
Game: Miami at New York Knicks (7:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Miami +7.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
The Knicks, as we have stated many times, have completely packed it in. Coach Thomas lost this team a long time ago, and as the season winds down, this team is a complete no-show. They have won once in their last 13, covering only one of those as well. A bad team that never made any type of commitment on defense is now showing even less effort. The past 13 games they have allowed 108.6 ppg while their scoring average has been the same at 95.8 ppg. The Knicks at times this season showed up for the big games, but they haven't shown up vs the poor teams at all. They are 16-36 ATS vs teams with a winning percentage of under .400, and 5-16 ATS at home vs teams that are under .400 on the road. They are also 6-20 ATS at home against a team with a losing record overall. The Heat are a bad team, but unlike the Knicks, they haven't quit. They are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs a team with a losing record, and have covered seven of their last ten overall. New York is just 2-10 ATS as a favorite this season, and have lost eight of the 12 outright. They have won just two of the four by more than this line, or two of 12 overall. We would much rather be on a team getting points that is playing hard vs one that has shown all season, even moreso now, that they don't show up vs the bad teams. We will back the Heat vs the lackluster Knicks.
Game: New Orleans at Cleveland (7:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on New Orleans +2.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)Pick: 3 units on First Half UNDER 97 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
New Orleans has won four straight and sits atop the Western Conference - a conference loaded with great teams, the likes of which we have not seen in a long time. Yet, they continue to get little respect. In our minds, New Orleans is a Top 10 team while Cleveland is not (see power rankings). This line should be closer to a pick'em in our book and as such we see value on the Hornets. New Orleans has already beaten Cleveland once this season, by a healthy 10 points. Cleveland is known for defense but stats-wise, New Orleans' D is better. And, their ofefense is a LOT better. The Hornets are 42-28 ATS as an underdog the past two seasons and 24-10 ATS on back-to-back days. We like New Orleans and the 2.5 point cushion. We also like the first-half UNDER in a matchup between two very good defenses. The Hornets are off an OVER and they are 24-9 UNDER in the first half in that situation this season. They are 18-8 UNDER in the first half after scoring 105+ last game. Cleveland is 11-3 UNDER in the first half in their last 14 home games. Hornets and the first-half UNDER here.
Game: Los Angeles Clippers at San Antonio (9:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on San Antonio -16 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
San Antonio has been hard to figure out this season. They have been very streaky. They won 14 of 15 from the end of January to the beginning of March. They then lost five of six and have followed that up with five straight wins. Typically a solid team regardless of location or situation, the Spurs are just 20-17 on the road this season. The one constant for them has been their play at home where they are 28-6 this season, holding opponents to 88.9 ppg. The Clippers are just 9-25 on the road, giving up 103.9 ppg and they are mired in a eight game losing streak. They have also lost 16 of their last 18 winning just five games ATS over that span. The Clips have gone 3-8 ATS in their last eleven vs. winning teams and 6-20 ATS in their last 26 following an ATS win. We like the Spurs to take care of business tonight and deliver a big-time blowout.
Results: 2-4
NBA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-25-2008
San Antonio's offense is average at best while their defense is very good. OVer their last five games they have stepped it up, holding opponents to 44.0 ppg in the first half. Orlando has also ste...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-24-2008
We said it last time out when we faded the Knicks. They are a bad team, but now a bad team that has packed it in! Evidence shines brightly as the Knicks have fallen behind in the first quarter of...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-23-2008
Dallas has lost two straight and can't afford to lose a third in a row here. They ran into the freight train called the Boston Celtics in their last game, losing by 4, despite a good game by Nowit...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-22-2008
The Kings give up 106 ppg on the road. Their offense is clicking right now as they have gotten 102.4 per game over their last five. Memphis has scored all season, and also gives up 106 ppg (at home). ...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-21-2008
Both of these teams have average defenses. Philly is average on offense but Orlando is !GOOD1! on offense. Does that spell this game going over 104 in the first half? No way - the line is too high. On...
