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Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Detroit at Milwaukee (3:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Game Total OVER 188.5 -110

Detroit has been a big UNDER team on the road this season. They have also gone UNDER in five of their last six games. Last game they went OVER but barely as 179 points were scored. We now officially have value on the OVER in Detroit games as the public is overreacting. This total is off by at least three points as it should be somewhere in the low 190s. The Bucks are 28-14 OVER the past two seasons vs. great teams (outscoring opponents by 3+ ppg).

This total started at 184.5 and has plummeted down to 182. Yes, these teams play to low-scoring games against each other. But, the last two have gone OVER (average 194.5 points scored). Portland's defense is much weaker on the road (alllowing 100 per game) than at home. The T-Wolves are 19-10 OVER this season vs. a losing opponent and 20-9 OVER as a favorite. They are also 12-2 OVER at home with a total posted between 180 and 190 this season.

Denver can shoot. But the Cavs are 18-8 UNDER this season to the first half line the past two seasons vs. teamst hat shoot 46%+ from the field. This is a very high line for the Nuggets on the road. Even Denver, a proflific scoring teams, is 12-2 UNDER on the road when the total is between 100-105. Cleveland has been struggling offensively and they are 12-3 UNDER at home the past two seasons at home after scoring 90 points or less in two straight games.

The Rockets hold opponents to just 43.7 first-half points per game. They do over a full-point better than that vs. division foes. The Hornets manage just 44.8 first half points per game vs. division opponents. Houston has gone UNDER the first half total 40 out of 68 games this season including 22-12 UNDER on the road. They are 35-18 UNDER in the first half vs. division opponents over the past three seasons. When facing a team that doesn't pass very well (20 or fewer assists per game), they are 15-7 UNDER.

Ray Allen is still out for Seattle and without him, they have no shot against the Spurs. San Antonio escaped with a 1 point victory over Detroit on Friday night. Close calls like that usually scare the Spurs into coming out strong the next game. They are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games coming off a close home win. The Spurs are also 16-4 ATS in their last twenty games following four straight games in which they scored 90 points or less.