Basketball Predictions - March 21, 2008
We suffered our first real setback in a couple of weeks going 0-2-1 yesterday. Tonight we look to bounce back with six picks.
Today's NBA Basketball Picks:
Game: Philadelphia at Orlando (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on First Half UNDER 104.5 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)
Both of these teams have average defenses. Philly is average on offense but Orlando is good on offense. Does that spell this game going over 104 in the first half? No way - the line is too high. On the road, Philly games average 97.4 points in the first half. Home games for Orlando average 101.2 first-half points. Philly is off a high-scoring 115-113 contest vs. Denver. The Sixers are 25=13 UNDER the past two seasons after allowing 105+ in their last game. The Magic are 21-12 UNDER in the first half as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. They are alos 8-0 UNDER this season at home revenging a road loss (they lost in Philly February 27th).
Game: Denver at New Jersey (7:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on New Jersey +4 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 226 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Denver has certainly shown they can score and they also play absolutely no defense. They have really become an OVER team of late, playing eight of their last nine OVER the total. The average points scored in their games has been 233. They have also played 10 of 13 on the road against teams with losing records on the season OVER. New Jersey has also become an OVER team of late as six of their last seven have gone OVER. Denver has also played 17-5 OVER when they are a favorite. Both teams are hot offensively and the Nuggets play no defense, so we like the OVER here. We also like New Jersey to cover and maybe win. 80% of the bets are coming in on Denver but the line is moving the other way. With Denver's defense giving up over 110 per game on the road, the Nets should have a good shot at winning outright so we'll take them with the poins as insurance.
Game: Washington at Miami (7:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Washington -13 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
We've been on some big favorites this week and they have all come through. We laid 14 on Dallas and 16 on Denver on Sunday and they both covered. We then gave up 9 on Golden State and 12 on Phoenix on Wednesday and went 1-0-1 or 2-0 depending on the line. Now we see another big line that we feel will be covered. The Wizards are a playoff team that has won four of their last five while Miami owns the worst record in the league. The Heat have packed it in with their coach basically having given up and looking for an out. It didn't get any worse than last game when they put a ridiculous 54 points vs. Toronto. That's the third lowest total in the shot-clock era. Washington has to win the easy games like this as six of their next seven are road games. This one should get ugly too.
Game: Toronto at Cleveland (7:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on First Half UNDER 95.5 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)
Chris Bosh is back and said of his first game vs. Miami, "I just wanted to play defense." Gotta love it. He said, "I wasn't worried about offense. Once I get in shape it will come a little easier." We look for lots of defense today from both of these clubs. The last time they played (in January), 76 first-half points were scored. Cleveland home games average 92 points in the first half. They are superb on defense, holding opponents to 44.4 per game. They are 28-14 UNDER in the first half the past three seasons after going UNDER in their prior three games. They are 18-7 UNDER over that span after scorign 90 or less in back-to-back games.
Game: Los Angeles Clippers at Portland (10:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Portland -11.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Portland has probably been the most inconsistent team in the NBA. Ironically, they have been highly predictable as a result. You just have to know which way the see-saw is teetering. Their season can be broken down ATS in five segments. They began 6-1 and in the process went 1-0 as a favorite. They then proceeded to go 0-8, and were 0-3 as a favorite. They got hot again, and went 17-3, and 8-1 as a favorite. They followed by going 4-17, and 1-9 as a favorite. They have now gone 8-4, and 3-0 as a favorite. When they are down, they are 4-25 ATS and 1-12 ATS as a favorite. When they are up, they are 31-8 ATS and 12-1 ATS as a favorite. They are up now! As for the Clippers, they are bad and simply can't win. They have covered just three of their last 15, and in their last 13 road losses, ten have come by double-digits, with the average loss by 17 ppg. Riding the Blazers who are on the up-swing, and when they are, they cover everything in sight.
Results: 4-2
NBA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-20-2008
After their amazing start, it's hard to imagine that the Celtics could heat it up even more but that's what they have done, winning 13 of their last 14 games. They have taken out two Western C...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-19-2008
Washington gives up 100.8 per game on the road but just 47 in the first half. Their offense produces just 45.6 first-half points per game. Orlando gives up 99.2 at home but 48.9 in the first half. Orl...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-18-2008
The Nuggets high octane offense has now put up 305 points in their last two games. The 168 vs the Sonics was an NBA season high. We were on them in that game, a 52-point win, but we are fadi...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-17-2008
This should be a good game to watch and you would think Orlando will have the edge at home where they are 21-12. We will look to the first-half total though. Cleveland has been a very good defensive t...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-16-2008
Houston has run off an amazing 21 straight wins, and not a single opponent in their last 19 has scored over 100 points. In those most recent 19 games, the Rockets are allowing just 86.4 ppg. The ...
