Basketball Picks - March 20, 2008
3-0 last night and 71% (39-16) for +70.9 units over the last two weeks!
Our run in the NBA continued last night as we finished 3-0-1 for +11.8 units including another 5-unit winner! Some of our subscribers got Phoenix at -11.5, if you were one of them, congrats - you got the 4-0 sweep! Three more plays today with another 5-unit pick.
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Today's NBA Basketball Picks:
Game: Boston at Dallas (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Dallas -2.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Pick: 4 units on First Half UNDER 94 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)
After their amazing start, it's hard to imagine that the Celtics could heat it up even more but that's what they have done, winning 13 of their last 14 games. They have taken out two Western Conference contenders in Houston and San Antonio and now shoot for a third. They laid an amazing comeback on the World Champion Spurs two games back and then proceeded to end Houston's 22 game winning streak (NBA second-best) with a 20-point beat-down. They have done this all without Ray Allen and his 18 ppg. Can they make it three in a row on the road against the league's elite? We don't think so. Dallas has also been hot, winning five of six. They are off a 2 point loss to the Lakers but over these last six games they are outscoring their opponents by an average of 19.4 ppg (108.5 - 89.1). Dallas has more to play for. They need to protect their home court (where they are very strong at 29-5). They are fighting for playoff position, whereas Boston is not. Teams that have won 20+ of their last 25 games, playing in a game with a line of -3 to +3 are just 17-40 ATS (30%) the past five seasons. We tend to fade Dallas on the road but at home it's another story. We think Boston's great run hits a speed bump tonight. We also love the first-half UNDER here. Boston, when playing versus the best teams in the leauge, look to their defense. Versus .600+ teams they allow 87.5 ppg. That's amazing when you consider that those opponents average 101.5 ppg. That means the Celts are keeping these top teams to 14 points less than their season average. Dallas has held their last five opponents to 42.2 first-half points. This is Boston's ninth game in the last 13 days and fourth straight road game following two key games. We expect them to be a little flat offensively and we'll back the first half UNDER and the Mavs against the spread.
Game: Los Angeles Lakers at Utah (10:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 5 units on Utah -6.5 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)
The road for Utah has been a struggle at times, but to steal a line from the Wizard of Oz, "There's no place like home." What has been a year of streaks in the NBA has found another building momentum in Utah. The Jazz have captured 19 in a row on their home-court. It isn't a streak that has been laden with cupcakes either, as they are a perfect 7-0 vs teams over .500. The resume has even more. The last 16 they have played vs .500+ teams at home have resulted in a 15-1 SU record with nine coming by double-digits and 13 by 6 points or more! They are 14-5 ATS during this 19 game whirlwind of wins. The only trouble they have had is picking the pocket of Vegas when they are a huge favorite. They have gone 9-7 ATS when favored by 9 or more. They are lining the pockets for their backers when they are a favorite at home of 8.5 or less to the tune of 13-1 ATS! The Lakers had a nice run of their own, playing good basketball and posting victories in 13 of 14. But they have since cooled off, having dropped three of five. In their last eleven games they have been bad versus the number, going just 4-7 ATS. Injuries are beginning to take their toll. Bynum has been out for a long time, now Gasol (ankle) is sidelined, and Kobe not only has the finger problem, but now an injured hip as well. That's not good timing coming to Utah without a full deck, and playing sub-par of late. Especially when facing a team that plays superb at home, and beat up on the Lakers by 24 early. The Jazz are the value laden team here, and the streak hits 20.
NBA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-19-2008
Washington gives up 100.8 per game on the road but just 47 in the first half. Their offense produces just 45.6 first-half points per game. Orlando gives up 99.2 at home but 48.9 in the first half. Orl...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-18-2008
The Nuggets high octane offense has now put up 305 points in their last two games. The 168 vs the Sonics was an NBA season high. We were on them in that game, a 52-point win, but we are fadi...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-17-2008
This should be a good game to watch and you would think Orlando will have the edge at home where they are 21-12. We will look to the first-half total though. Cleveland has been a very good defensive t...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-16-2008
Houston has run off an amazing 21 straight wins, and not a single opponent in their last 19 has scored over 100 points. In those most recent 19 games, the Rockets are allowing just 86.4 ppg. The ...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-15-2008
For Indiana, it has been a tale of two seasons. The Pacers started off 15-13 then followed that up with multiple injuries and a 10-27 mark over their last 40 games. This has shown the most against the...
