Free Basketball Pick - March 19, 2008
We hit our third 5 unit play in a row on the way to another winning night at 4-2 and +7.7 units last night. Our onslaught of the books is now 36-16 (69%) over our last 52 picks, good for a +59 units! We come back with four strong plays today including two more 5 unit plays!
Important note: We originally had a bug with the Wunderdog "Lucky 7" March Madness Bracket Contest which resulted in getting a "Tournament is Full" message if you tried to sign up before last night. This has been fixed and you can now sign up for this no-cost tournament here.
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Today's NBA Basketball Picks:
Game: Wahington at Orlando (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on First Half UNDER 100 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)
Washington gives up 100.8 per game on the road but just 47 in the first half. Their offense produces just 45.6 first-half points per game. Orlando gives up 99.2 at home but 48.9 in the first half. Orlando has a superb offense but Washington can keep them in relative check. The Wizards have held ten of their last fifteen opponents to under 100 points. Their defense has been lax of late which is why we think they turn it up here. That, and the fact that Orlando put up 122 on them the last time they met. We look for an inspired defensive effort by the Wiz tonight. The past two seasons Washington is 41-17 UNDER to a first half total of 100-105. They are 18-7 UNDER this season in the first half as an underdog and 22-9 UNDER on the road. Over the past two seasons, when on the road at a line of 100 to 105, they are 14-2 UNDER! They are also off an upset loss to Atlanta and they are 8-1 UNDER in that situation this season.
Game: Detroit at Cleveland (8:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 185.5 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)
The Pistons gave up more points last night to Denver than to any team they have faced all season, but they also scored more than they have against any team all season. It really fills the pot chock full of value for tonight's games in Cleveland. The scoring explosion makes the odds-makers rachet it up a notch, from where this total should really be. The general public is thinking big after last nights explosion, as evidenced by this line climbing. Think again! These teams are the epitomy of low scoring teams. The last seven times these teams have met in Cleveland, all have gone UNDER the total! They aren't sneaking under the total either. The last six have gone UNDER by at least 15 points! The games these teams have played in Detroit have been no different. The last 10 times they have met, and the game did not go into overtime, every single one went UNDER. That is 17-0 UNDER the last 17 times these teams have met in a regular season game that did not go OT! The 10 played in Detroit did not eke under the total either, as the average margin under the total has been 15.2 ppg! The 17 games played have seen the highest output between these teams to be 183! The average total points in the 17 games has been 168.8ppg. Detroit has been at their defensive best, after the rare game in which they give up triple digits. They have done so 18 times this season, and have come back to play 12 of 18 under in their next game (67%). The last 14 times they have given up 100+, they have allowed just 86.4 ppg to teams that average 97.3 ppg. That's 12.3 points less than their opponents normally average! These teams combined on the season have played UNDER in 34 of 58 games (59%) when the total is posted in the 180s. Another ugly defensive struggle is in order, and we will play UNDER in this one.
Game: Phoenix at Seattle (10:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 5 units on Phoenix -12 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)
We are not sure if there is any amount of points that could put value on the Sonics of late. This is a team that has endured losing streaks of six, eight and 14 games already this season. Once again they are amidst another lengthy slide as their bad play has led to another 8-game losing streak. They have hit new heights of futility, dropping their last game to Denver by 52 points, allowing 168 points. We were on the Nuggs then and we will fade Seattle again tonight. They have shown no sign of improvement over the course of the season, and in fact may be regressing. They lost 12 games by double digits before the New Year. Since then they have lost 16 more! That is 28 games lost by double-digits already on the season. While they struggled to integrate Shaq at first, Phoenix has finally learned how to play with him and they are now stronger. They have won and covered five straight by an average margin of 15.4 ppg. Their last three trips on the road to teams with a losing record have resulted in blow-out wins. The Sonics are 7-17 ATS at home in post All-Star play since last season and 9-19 ATS this season off a road loss. We expect them to fall and fall hard here against the Suns.
Game: Golden State at Los Angeles Clippers (10:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 5 units on Golden State -9 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)
The Clippers gave out some false hope with a 6-4 start, and had a stretch in the middle of their season in which they went 8-9. Otherwise this team has gone 7-32, completely non-competitive. Lately, they have been at their worst, going just 2-12 and 3-11 ATS. Their last three games against teams that win 60%+ of their games have been losses by 30, 28 and 18 points. Golden State has been a good, highly consistent team this year. They have not dropped two in a row in 32 straight games. After their 0-6 start to the season, the Warriors have been money after a loss, having cashed 13 of 17! We like the Warriors to lay one on the struggling Clippers on the road.
NBA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-18-2008
The Nuggets high octane offense has now put up 305 points in their last two games. The 168 vs the Sonics was an NBA season high. We were on them in that game, a 52-point win, but we are fadi...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-17-2008
This should be a good game to watch and you would think Orlando will have the edge at home where they are 21-12. We will look to the first-half total though. Cleveland has been a very good defensive t...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-16-2008
Houston has run off an amazing 21 straight wins, and not a single opponent in their last 19 has scored over 100 points. In those most recent 19 games, the Rockets are allowing just 86.4 ppg. The ...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-15-2008
For Indiana, it has been a tale of two seasons. The Pacers started off 15-13 then followed that up with multiple injuries and a 10-27 mark over their last 40 games. This has shown the most against the...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-14-2008
We have backed the Jazz on the road lately and gotten burned. They have shown us that even when they should have something to prove, they don't do it. Now they face a Celtics team that can seal th...
