Free Nba Basketball Pick - March 17, 2008
We got the 4-0 sweep yesterday, including our 5-unit Game of the Month on Houston as we grabbed 13.7 units - a week's worth of units in just one night! We are now hitting at 69% (29-13) over our last 42 picks - good for +45.2 units. Tonight we have four picks.
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Today's NBA Basketball Picks:
Game: Cleveland at Orlando (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on First Half UNDER 101.5 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)
This should be a good game to watch and you would think Orlando will have the edge at home where they are 21-12. We will look to the first-half total though. Cleveland has been a very good defensive team all season but lately they have stepped it up. They have held their last five opponents to just 44.8 ppg in the first half. Orlando's defense is fairly weak on the road but at home it's solid. Orlando is 84-67 UNDER in the first half the past two seasons including 54-36 as a favorite. They are 42-25 UNDER over that span coming off an OVER. This season they are 15-7 UNDER after scoring triple-digits in three straight games and 20-11 UNDER in the first half after a game in which 205+ points were scored. Cleveland is 11-3 UNDER in the first half on the road vs. winning teams this season. We like this one to come in the 90s.
Game: Charlotte at Memphis (8:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Memphis +2 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 208 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Here we have a team that is just 6-25 SU on the road and is now favored. How crazy is this? It's only the second time in franchise history that Charlotte takes to the road as a favorite. Memphis certainly is a place and team that provides justification to such a rare event. But upon deeper analysis of the numbers, there is truely no value in Charlotte in this situation. Memphis has won just two games in their last 21, which happens to be the number of times they have played a team with a losing record at home. The two wins came when they played a team with a losing record at home! Since the first of the year, Memphis is just 7-28 overall and 6-11 at home. They are 0-10 SU and 0-10 ATS vs teams .500+ at home in this stretch. They are 6-1 SU and ATS at home vs losing teams. They are 3-0 in this same situation since they traded Gasol. The season shows a similar story. They are 1-16 ATS at home vs winning teams, and 9-3 ATS vs losing teams. On the surface this line looks viable, but when you really breakdown what is happening within the number, this line is completely off! Charlotte has never won or covered at Memphis, and the Grizzlies have an opportunity to revenge an earlier loss here. We like the Grizzlies to exploit a bad line, and come away with the home win. We also like the OVER as Charlotte is allowing 103.3 per game on the road and Memphis 106.7 per game at home. Memphis also puts up 102.6 per game at home. Charlotte is 29-16 OVER the past three seasons in the second of back-to-back road games. They are also 20-8 OVER the past two seasons after three straight losses. Memphis and the OVER here.
Game: Chicago at New Orleans (8:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on New Orleans -4.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Hornets have exceeded expectations this season while the Bulls have certainly under-achieved all year long. The Hornets have been whipping the lesser teams of the NBA all season long, and since December 22nd they have been just destroying these teams. They have met nine teams with sub-.500 records at home since December 22nd, and they are 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS vs. those teams. The only blemish was a missed cover by one point vs Memphis. None of these teams have come within double-digits and the average winning margin has been an amazing 21.2 ppg. The Bulls have covered some big lines on the road vs winning teams, but overall they are just 6-10 ATS vs .500+ teams on the road. When the line is down to 6.5 or less against the .500+ teams they are just 1-4 ATS. Thehe lone cover came vs Portland, a marginal winning team at 35-32. David West will likely not play, but he didn't play against New Jersey and they won by 11. He was also absent vs. Atlanta and they won by 15! Hornets by double-digits here.
Results: 3-1
NBA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-16-2008
Houston has run off an amazing 21 straight wins, and not a single opponent in their last 19 has scored over 100 points. In those most recent 19 games, the Rockets are allowing just 86.4 ppg. The ...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-15-2008
For Indiana, it has been a tale of two seasons. The Pacers started off 15-13 then followed that up with multiple injuries and a 10-27 mark over their last 40 games. This has shown the most against the...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-14-2008
We have backed the Jazz on the road lately and gotten burned. They have shown us that even when they should have something to prove, they don't do it. Now they face a Celtics team that can seal th...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-13-2008
Caron Butler is expected back here but don't expect him to have too much of an impact in his first action. He'll likely test that bad hip against a guy who is lighting it up. LeBron James is a...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-12-2008
How can anyone resist at this point? Houston has won 19 times in a row, and covered 17 at the same time. This streak started on Jan 29th, but lost in all this is the fact that the Rockets haven't ...
