Nbapicks - March 15, 2009

We went 2-2 last night, dropping 2.5 units. Over the past four months on the pro hardwood we are hitting 57% for +101.1 units. Today we have five picks...

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Today's NBA Basketball Picks:

Game: Miami at Philadelphia (1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Miami +7.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)

Miami has already beaten the Sixers in two of the three meetings this season, yet they are getting a bushel of points here. Philadelphia has a losing record ATS at home and their defense has been slipping of late. The Sixers have allowed triple-digits in five of their last seven games. Meanwhile, Miami's offense is en fuego! Over their past eight games they have scored 100+ in all but one game, averaging 116 points per game! With those numbers, I'm on the Heat with the points.

The Blazers are tied with the Nuggets at the top of the Northwest. This team doesn't lose at the Rose Garden but on the road they struggle. Atlanta is very similar - not so hot on the road but extremely tough at home. As we get closer to the playoffs, games like this become statement games of sorts. They often take on a playoff atmosphere and that means defense. Atlanta games have averaged just 181.6 total points in their last five. They are 18-12 UNDER at home this season and Portland has seen more UNDERs than OVERs on the road this season. The Hawks are also 16-6 UNDER in non-conference games this season. When facing a winning team, the Blazers are 65-45 UNDER the past three seasons. Over the past two seasons, Portland is 42-29 UNDER as an underdog. The last time these teams met, Portland embarrassed the Hawks, winning by double-digits. I expect a fired-up Hawks team to dictate the tone here and that will be defense. Take the UNDER.

Hedo Turkoglu is questionable for this game but I like the Magic either way (more with him playing of course). Utah simply isn't a good road team. While 28-6 at home, they are 13-19 on the road with a losing ATS record to boot. Their defense is horrible (105 per game allowed on the road) this season and an average of 110 per game over their last four. Orlando is 25-7 at home (19-13 ATS) where they allow just 91.8 points per game. That defensive difference is huge. Utah has shown some fatigue on this long road trip as they had won 12 in a row prior to losing their last two. The last game was a tough triple OT loss and this is their fifth straight road game. It's just asking too much of this team to stay close here on the road vs. the Magic.

The Kings are 14-51 (NBA worst 4-28 on the road), yet they are given a roughly equal chance of winning this game? Hmmmm. I'm not buying it. Yes, the Wizards have their own problems but they are at home here. The Wizards defense is bad, but not nearly as bad as that of the Kings, who allow 110 per game on the road. This is a very winnable game for Washington and I think they take advantage of the home court advantage to grab the win. I'm fading the team that's 4-28 in this situation.

The Suns snapped a really bad losing streak last game vs. Oklahoma City. This game should feel more comfortable for the Suns as they get a team that doesn't mind playing their up-tempo game. Golden State has the worst defense in the Association, allowing 111.5 points per game. So what can we expect here, besides a very high-scoring affair? I like the Suns to keep it close and possibly win. Golden State is just 3-7 in division games, giving up 116 ppg. Phoenix beat them by 10 points the last time they met. In that game the Suns were a 9.5 point favorite. Now they are getting 2.5 points - a full 12 point swing, based on location and an over-reaction to Phoenix's recent woes. I'll take the points here as I think this line should be closer to even.

Results: 3-1

NBA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Read our NBA prior picks here.
• View our updated 2008 NBA basketball handicapping preview.
• View our updated NBA sportsbooks.
• View our updated NBA basketball Game Analysis.
• Updated today: 2008 NBA picks results.
• Don't forget to read our NBA worst teams here.
• Updated today: free basketball pick.
• Check out our updated basketball lines and odds.
• Take a look at our NBA basketball ATS recprds here.
• View our blog NBA here.

Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

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NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-13-2009
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NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-11-2009
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NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-09-2009
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NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-08-2009
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