Nba Sports Picks - March 15, 2008

We finished 4-2 last night night good for +5.7 units. Over the last week we are hitting 64% (21-12) for +22.8 units of profit. Tonight we have five picks.

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Today's NBA Basketball Picks:

Game: Indiana at Orlando (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Orlando -10.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)

For Indiana, it has been a tale of two seasons. The Pacers started off 15-13 then followed that up with multiple injuries and a 10-27 mark over their last 40 games. This has shown the most against the very good teams (.600 or better). When the Pacers were out of the gate at 15-13 they were very competitive against the NBA's best. They compiled a 6-5 SU mark, made up of 3-0 at home and 3-5 on the road, suffering just two double-digit setbacks. It has been a horror show since. The latest 10-27 slide shows a completely different picture. They are 0-5 at home and 0-9 on the road. The road shows seven of nine games lost by 11 points or more and the only two games in single-digits were against the two teams that refuse to play defense in Golden State and Phoenix. Orlando has had a season that started 16-4 they had a bad run of 8-13, and recently have been 19-7. The 8-13 run showed them going just 3-4 SU at home against sub-.500 teams winning just two by double-digits. Combining their 16-4 start and their recent 19-7 run, or 35-11 combined, shows complete dominance of these teams. They are 11-0 SU against the sub-.500 teams at home and have won all 11 by at least 11 points covering this line in every single game! The average margin in these 11 games is 18.7 points per game. There is no question where the value is in this game, and we will ride the Magic to continue their home dominance over the sub-.500 teams.

Utah laid a whopping on Boston yesterday and now everyone's on them here. Well, we think they are due for a bit of a letdown after that win over Boston. It was a big road win for the Jazz but the fact remains, they are just 16-20 SU and 15-21 ATS on the road this season. Can they put together back-to-back road blowouts? We doubt it. It's tough to lay this many points on the road when you are giving up 105 per game and have that kind of track record. Utah is 5-14 ATS this season on the road vs. losing teams and they are 15-27 ATS as a road favorite dating back to last season.

That was an embarrassing loss last night. Utah, a losing team on the road, came into Boston and won by 18 points in a game Boston was supposed to win by 7. That loss snapped Boston's 10-game winning streak. We expect the Celtics to be fired up here as a result. Milwaukee lost to Boston in December 104-82. That can often spell revenge motivation in the next game. But, that is negated by what happened last night. In fact, home teams revenging a 20+ point blowout loss are just 45-84 (35%) ATS the past decade when facing a team off an upset loss. Boston takes care of business vs. weak teams as they are 10-2 ATS this season on the road vs. losing teams. We like the Celtics in a double-digit win. We also like the first-half UNDER. We think Boston will show an extra effort on defense, especially out of the gate, after giving up 110 last night. The Celtics are 20-9 UNDER this season in the first half when facing poor defenses (those allowing 100+ per game). The Bucks are 29-16 UNDER in the first half the past two seasons to a total in this range (100-105). They are also 12-3 UNDER after having allowed opponents 50%+ from the field in two straight games, as they also try to batten down the hatches after some embarrassing defense. Boston and the first-half UNDER here.

The Suns have become a serious OVER team of late. They have played OVER the total in 12 of their last 15 games. The Suns score at their best vs the NBA's weakest defenses. They produce 109.8 ppg on the season, but against the bottom seven defenses in the league average just a bit under 120! They are 9-1 OVER in their last 10 to a total of 220+. The Kings have become an OVER team of late as well, surpassing the total in 10 of their last 13. These teams over the last 2+ years, have played OVER in all five games played at Phoenix, and we look for that trend to continue tonight.

Results: 4-1

NBA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Read our basketball prior predictions here.
• View basketball handicapping here.
• Take a look at our basketball lines and odds here.
• Read our NBA ATS records here.
• View 2007 season NBA betting preview here.
• Here we show our NBA Game-of-Day Analysis.
• Check out NBA sportsbook reviews here.
• Here we show our 2007 NBA pick results.
• Updated today: basketball power ratings.
• Take a look at our basketball blog here.

Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-14-2008
We have backed the Jazz on the road lately and gotten burned. They have shown us that even when they should have something to prove, they don't do it. Now they face a Celtics team that can seal th...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-13-2008
Caron Butler is expected back here but don't expect him to have too much of an impact in his first action. He'll likely test that bad hip against a guy who is lighting it up. LeBron James is a...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-12-2008
How can anyone resist at this point? Houston has won 19 times in a row, and covered 17 at the same time. This streak started on Jan 29th, but lost in all this is the fact that the Rockets haven't ...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-11-2008
Milwaukee, 6-26 on the road this season, is without two starters here (Mo Williams and Yi Jianlian). They have lost five of six. Washington is also banged up but they are a better team, and they ...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-10-2008
LeBron is staking his claim to best player in the NBA. In March he's averaging 41 points per game, hitting over 41% from beyond the arc. The Cavs have won seven of ten and five straight at home. O...