Nba Free Pick - March 14, 2009
Last night, we hit with our 5-unit play as Memphis hung in there against Boston for the cover. We look to keep our run going with four picks including another 5-unit play. Since mid-November, our NBA plays are hitting 57%, 202-152 for +103.6 units.
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Today's NBA Basketball Picks:
Game: Charlotte at Minnesota (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 192.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Timberwolves were not a good team with Al Jefferson in the middle, although they began to use his skills at both ends of the court to become more competitive. His absence has left a void they are feeling more on the defensive end of the court. Since his absence, teams are driving to the middle uncontested, and generating more second-chance opportunities. It has led to the T-Wolves allowing 107 points per game since he was injured. The Bobcats aren't a big scoring machine, but in their last three against teams that don't defend well, New York, LA Clippers, and Golden State (all on the road), they have averaged 109 ppg, good enough to push this one OVER the total.
Game: San Antonio at Houston (8:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 5 units on Houston -140 (moneyline) (risk 5 to win 3.6)Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 183 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
There should be a playoff-like atmosphere in Houston tonight, especially with San Antonio, an in-state rival making an appearance. These are two top teams and both are in the NBA's top 10 in fewest points allowed per game. That should be magnified tonight as these teams jockey for position in the NBA West. The Spurs always bring their best defense against the top teams as they have played UNDER to an amazing 17 of 22 vs. teams with a winning record. The Rockets have matched that and more, as they are 20-6 to the UNDER against a team with a winning record as well. That is 37-11 to the UNDER combined for these teams to the UNDER - and that is hard to ignore. I'll play this one to go UNDER the total. It is also hard to ignore the fact that the Rockets are 17-1 in their last 18 at home against anyone other than the Lakers! Giving just over a bucket here is also showing value, and I will also side with the host Rockets here.
Game: Oklahoma City at Phoenix (10:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Oklahoma City +8 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The best bet in sports since Thanksgiving has been the Oklahoma City Thunder. Just look at the schedule, and if they are listed play them. That would have given you a 35-15 ATS mark, or 70% winners. The worst bet in sports would be to have played on the Phoenix Suns over about the same time period as you would have been just 19-36 ATS or winning 34.5% of the time. The Suns are quickly playing themselves out of contention in the NBA West, and all they seem interested in doing is see how many points they can score. That has led to just one pointspread win in their last six. I’m Going with Oklahoma City in this one.
Results: 2-2
NBA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-13-2009
The Rockets have turned the corner and moving up at 21-9 and are playing .700 basketball over their last 30 games. Within that stretch was a 21-point thrashing of the Bobcats. The Bobcats put together...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-11-2009
There's no place like home for both of these teams as each has struggled on the road. The bad news for the Jazz, they are traveling for this one. The Jazz have won 12 straight, but a closer look s...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-09-2009
The Miami Heat have something few teams have, and that is a top five player that has elevated his level of play recently. Dwayne Wade is playing like a player possessed of late. In his last eight game...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-08-2009
Two of the top teams in the east clash in what should be a good game in Boston. The Celtics have taken care of Orlando twice already this season as they aren't intimidated by Dwight Howard. Boston...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-07-2009
Dallas has not only been good at home at 23-8 on the season, they have been perfect at 15-0 vs the teams with a record of under .500 for the season. What they have been able to do is have their way on...
