Free Picks Basketball - March 09, 2008
We went 4-1 last night including a hit with our 5-unit play. Today we have four picks.
Today's NBA Basketball Picks:
Game: San Antonio at Phoenix (3:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on San Antonio -2 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 202.5 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)
The Suns are really in a free-fall right now while San Antonio is being San Antonio again, having won 15 of 17. For the Spurs, it's all about defense as only three teams in their last 27 games have managed to reach the 100-point mark against them. With the Suns strategy focused on offense, that spells trouble for them here. The Spurs have only reached 100 points five times themselves in the past 25 games. The Suns are just 3-10 ATS when they don't reach 100 points. The problem they have is playing against the NBA's four best defensive teams. They got 85 vs Boston, 86 vs Detroit, 81 vs San Antonio last time they came here and 94 against Houston. Phoenix simply cannot impose their will against these teams as they have collectively held the Suns to to 20+ points per game below their average, and San Antonio is playing some serious "D" right now. We expect them to get the road win, and keep the game at a half-court pace, so we like the UNDER as well.
Game: Chicago at Detroit (8:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on First Half UNDER 98.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Detroit holds teams to 43.9 first-half points here at the Palace and Chicago is not a high-scoring team on the road. The Bulls are off a 23-point loss at Boston and they seem to have hangovers following those types of games as they are 15-6 UNDER in the first half following a double-digit loss this season. Detroit is 24-10 UNDER this season in the first half at home when the total is between 98 and 100. Chicago surprised Detroit in their last matchup, beating the Pistons by 16 points. You can bet the Pistons will clamp down here as a result. Detroit has gone UNDER in the first half to the tune of 49-30 the past three seasons when revenging a loss. That includes a 21-9 UNDER mark if the loss was by double-digits.
Game: Sacramento at Los Angeles Lakers (9:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Los Angeles Lakers -13 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
Is there any stopping the Lakers? They have won 13 of 14, scoring triple-digits in all but one game and winning on average by a score of 113 to 99. Their loss was a letdown game in Portland with Dallas on deck. They are playing hard in a concerted effort to finish the season with the best record in the West, as the home-court advantage that comes with that will have MAJOR playoff implications in a year with so many good teams. After the Lakers beat the Clippers by 37 points, Kobe said, "We just want to be No. 1, I mean it's that simple." So, we have a team with scary talent that is extremely motivated. That's a killer combination. Sacramento's defense is terrible and getting worse. They give up 104.9 on the road this season but they've allowed 110.3 to division opponents and 113.6 over their last five games overall. The Lakers don't lay down often vs. weak competition as they are 21-8 ATS this season vs. losing teams including 11-1 in their last 12 games! They are 24-7 ATS vs. poor defensive teams like the Kings (those that allow 100+ per game) including 11 staright covers vs. such teams! LA is also great in shootouts (16-4 ATS in games with a posted total of 210 or more). This one is no contest.
Results: 2-2
NBA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-08-2008
The Warriors have been winning. But against whom? Seattle? Philly? Portland? Charlotte? Miami? Those games have not prepared them for this one against a Magic team that is 40-23 on the season and on t...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-07-2008
The Sixers are 10-3 in their last 13 games, moving into the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race. They are rolling and need to continue to win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Seattle comes ...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-06-2008
San Antonio continues to play great basketball while other teams steal the headlines. The Spurs have won ten straight and have taken over the top spot in the Western Conference. The last three times t...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-05-2008
Washington's offense is struggling and facing an Orlando defense that has really picked things up, we expect the Wizards to have trouble scoring here, especially early. The Wiz are averaging just ...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-04-2008
Golden State must keep winning. The crowded West is an extremely close race and the 9th team looking in at the playoffs will likely be there thanks to one win or loss. The Warriors currently hold the ...
