Free Nba Pick - March 05, 2008
We went 1-1 last night for a slight loss. Tonight we like five picks...
Today's NBA Basketball Picks:
Game: Orlando at Washington (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on First Half UNDER 99.5 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)
Washington's offense is struggling and facing an Orlando defense that has really picked things up, we expect the Wizards to have trouble scoring here, especially early. The Wiz are averaging just 40.4 ppg in the first half over their last five games. Orlando has turned a defense that was averaging over 100 ppg allowed early on to one averaging in the low 90s of late. The past two seasons, the Magic are 16-5 UNDER in the first half on the road after playhing 2+ at home. This season the Wizards are 23-11 UNDER in the first half as an underdog. Washington is 12-3 UNDER this season as well, revenging a home loss and 17-6 UNDER vs. winning teams.
Game: Cleveland at New York (7:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on New York +4 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
LeBron grabbed his second consecutive NBA Player of the Month award, sweeping 2008 so far. His team is winning as they have won five of the last seven. So, it's time for everyone to jump on the Cleveland bandwagon. We'll go the other way. Four of those five wins were at home. The two losses? On the road. Despite the hype, the fact remains that this team is just 6-8 ATS in their last fourteen games. They are 15-16 on the road this year but they are expected to win this game by more than two baskets. The Cavs are just 9-18 ATS this season after covering the spread in their last game. This seems to easy a pick on Cleveland and when that happens, it usually is. We'll take the home dog.
Game: Detroit at Boston (7:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on First Half UNDER 94 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
This should be a great game between the top two teams in the East. The Celtics are 26-4 at home, but one of those losses was to Detroit earlier this season. Both teams do it on defense. Boston holds foes here at home to 42.3 ppg and Detroit is not a high scoring team to begin with. Detroit is 74-54 UNDER in the first half on the road the past three seasons including 24-8 UNDER to a total of 90-95. Boston is 28-17 UNDER in the first half coming off a win this season. Yes, this total is low but these teams can deliver on it.
Game: Minnesota at Utah (9:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Minnesota +16 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
No team has been more impressive at home than the Jazz, who have now won 16 straight on their own floor. There is a price to pay for their backers, as they now face the biggest pointspread of the season vs the T-wolves. That kind of success means that there is no value on the Jazz anymore at home, as they face astronomical pointspreads that they have difficulty living up to. During this 16 game winning streak at home, they have faced three double-digit lines, and could not cash any of them. The Jazz appear to save their best for the best, as they have won and covered all of their last five vs .500+ teams, but failed to cover in each of the three against the sub-.500 teams. The Jazz play Friday night in Phoenix, who has a 1.5 game lead on them in the Western Conference Playoff standings. Like in past games vs bad teams, the energy may be reserved for what's ahead vs what is at hand. This is the perfect sandwich game, as the Jazz are also off of a big win vs Dallas. Minnesota has fared well vs the big pointspreads having gone 16-11 ATS as a 8.5+ dog. They have also played better over the second half of the season. They started 15-23 ATS, but have since been 16-11. We like the T-Wolves here, as the Jazz have sights set on Friday, and will conserve energy for the up-tempo Suns.
Game: Sacramento at Los Angeles Clippers (10:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Sacramento -2.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Sacramento had a 8 point lead las night over the Lakers with under six minutes to go last night. They ended up losing by 12. That's how scary the Lakers are right now. But, that was a good performance overall by the Kings. They now face the "other" LA team and they are going to roll over them. The Clippers are getting massacred by all comers of late. We faded them in their 26 point trouncing at the hands of Philadelphia. That was their sixth straight loss. Over those six games, the average score has been 84.7 to 103! They have scored triple-digits just once and allowed triple digits all but once. Sacramento is averaging 107 ppg over their last five games so they are going to score tonight. That's over 20 ppg more than LA is managing. To make matters worse for the Clippers, they beat Sacremento by 26 points in their last meeting, so Sacramento is motivated in a game in which they might otherwise not be. The Clippers are 3-12 ATS the past two seasons as a home dog of 3 or less. They will get crushed here.
Results: 1-4
NBA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
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