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Nba Free Predictions - June 14, 2009We come off another winning night in the NBA as our UNDER hit easily, yet again surviving overtime for the win. We lost the smaller pick on Orlando - one we feel we should have also had. But, oh well. The Lakers are lucky to be up 3-1 as they could easily be down 3-1. This series has turned out to be one of a lucky bounce or missed shot on the spread so we're going to lay off the side in game 5 and focus again on the total.
 Today's NBA Basketball Picks: Outside of the "outlier" game three that was totally not representative of what this series has been about, the UNDER has been overwhelmingly full of value, any way you slice it. These teams had mismatches to exploit in all their other series, and it led to some offensive explosions, but that is not the case here. The matchups have been pretty even, and each team has adjusted well to found weaknesses, and closed them up. We have had two overtime games, and yet both games still went UNDER the total. Orlando now has the gun to their head: win or play golf. That mindset may effect shooting early, as the reality of the moment sets in, but the defense should be the easy part. I expect even more intensity from the Magic here. Outside of the outliner game, these teams have played 12 quarters of basketball and just one of them has scored more than 50 points, and that was 53. If you combine that best output of 53 with any of the remaining 11 quarters from the three normal games, the first half-total would only be exceeded by two of them! The highest total points scored would be 103, the next highest 101. The nine remaining quarters, even combined with the highest quarter would all produce first-half UNDERs.Game: Los Angeles Lakers at Orlando (8:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 5 units on Game Total UNDER 198.5 -110 (risk 5 to win 4.6) The Orlando Magic will step on the court for game 5 knowing this may be their last game of the season. If that isn't a motivator, then there simply isn't one. You have to expect they'll play 48 minutes of intense basketball, and sometimes that pressure has a tendency to effect shooting, more than defense. Defense is a mindset and expect Orlando to at least bring that to this one as they have in every other game. Looking at this series, it has been played consistent on the defensive end, and very inconsistent on the offensive end. Each team has had its moments, but more than those moments have been the scoring droughts. There has been one exception, and that was the blistering shooting that saw both teams combine to connect at 56.3% in game two. And even with that abnormal outcome, just 212 total points were scored. Even with that game thrown into the mix, these teams have produced well under 180 points per game in regulation. The droughts in offense in this series has led to some very empty quarters of basketball, as there have been two games with exceptionally low scoring outputs in an individual quarter, and few with scoring explosions. Game one featured a 35 point quarter, game two a 30 point quarter, and game four never saw a quarter top 44 points. The total here is just shy of the 200 mark, meaning the quarters have to average 50 points to push this over. There have been 16 quarters of basketball played and just five of them have reached 50 points. Outside of the offensive explosion in game three, just two quarters out of 16 have reached the 50 mark. Here is perhaps the most telling sign of all and why the value has to be on the UNDER here. If you throw out game three which was a complete distortion of what these teams have done, and take the other three games representing 12 quarters of basketball, this is what you find. If you cherry-pick the top four quarters in all of the three games and add them together, the total score of those best offensive quarters would not go over any total in the four games played so far. I think that says it all. The UNDER again gets the call here. Results: 1-1 NBA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters: NBA-Basketball-Picks-June-11-2009 NBA-Basketball-Picks-June-09-2009 NBA-Basketball-Picks-June-06-2009 NBA-Basketball-Picks-June-02-2009 NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-30-2009 |
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