We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: San Antonio at Cleveland (9:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Cleveland +1

THIS IS A PLAY ON THE FIRST-HALF - NOT THE GAME.

San Antonio has had their way with Cleveland for the first two games of this series. It has the look of a 4-game San Antonio sweep on the surface. But then again, so did the Detroit series and Cleveland came back to win four straight. San Antonio has been in this spotlight on numerous occasions in the Duncan era while the Cavs are feeling their way through - and it shows. But, we like Cleveland tonight. It would really be a surprise if the Cavs didn't come out strong, hard and fast to open this game at home. This team gained some confidence in the fourth quater of game two. If Tony Parker didn't get a pass on an obvious travelling call in that game, the Spurs lead (once 29) could have been cut to 6 and that game might have been much closer in the end. The result is that Cleveland is not as disheartened as they could be after getting beat down so hard for 6 of the first 8 quarters of play. San Antonio has had issues when they have been up 2-0 and heading on the road for game three in the playoffs. They have dropped 9 of the last 10 ATS in this situation! By the same token, teams down 0-2 and installed as an underdog, have gone just 2-7-1 ATS, so something has to give. Our feeling is that if San Antonio comes out ready to play, and takes the first half, they will smell blood and put the Cavs away in the second half. But, we expect Cleveland to come out with a lot of energy, and that should propel them to the half. They may win the game, but we feel the first-half is a better play considering that San Antonio is THAT good. Even if they get down at half, the Spurs have a shot to come back and win. We just don't trust the Cavs due to their lack of experience in the Finals facing a team that has dominated them so far. We think the best call for this game is the Cavs putting it all on the table in the first half, as they will be a desparate team, while San Antonio may find it difficult to open with their "A" game after two crushing wins. Cleveland is very tough in this building and the line is begging you to take San Antonio (laying just two points). Seems to be a sucker line to us and we'll go the other way and make a play on Cleveland on the first half line.