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Free Nba Predictions - June 09, 2009We completed the 3-0 NBA sweep on Sunday to collect another +8.2 units. Sunday's win added to our already stellar NBA Playoffs run to the tune of +39.2 units (53-40). We're on our best NBA season ever as we are now +131.4 units since mid-November. Tonight, we are back on the NBA wood with another three premium plays including a 5-unit selection. Recession Buster Sale: For the next two days, get the WNBA full season package for just $250, or get on board for a month for just $150. To take advantage of our 60% WNBA season-to-date mark, reply to this email or call 1-877-DOG-WINS.
 Today's NBA Basketball Picks: One thing is clear about the oddsmakers in this series. They set the first 200+ NBA Finals total in 14 years. Looking at the first two games, they haven't even been in the ballpark. This has been a defensive playoffs for both teams (Lakers 14-6 UNDER and Magic 12-9 UNDER) and it's a defensive series, with both teams having trouble finding matchup advantages, negated by the others ability to adjust. We have yet to see either team be able to make separation, and that is because of the defense. The Lakers are going to come out strong defensively to try and control the crowd, and Orlando will come out fired up on the defensive end because they know a loss here and they are done. The last game saw the same thing, and just 75 first-half points scored. Orlando is 22-9 UNDER this season in the first-half when revenging a loss. They are 15-5 UNDER in the first half after allowing 100+ points in back-to-back games. This season, against winning teams, the Lakers are 33-23 UNDER in the first half while Orlando is 31-19 UNDER. I expect the signature of the first two games to carry over to this game and for this one to go UNDER in the first half too.Game: Los Angeles Lakers at Orlando (9:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Orlando -4 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) Pick: 5 units on Game Total UNDER 198.5 -110 (risk 5 to win 4.6) The Orlando Magic came within an eyelash of bringing this series back home all even at one game each. They had a layup at the end of regulation that rimmed out. Instead, they fell in OT and now face a must-win situation. They truthfully did not play well, committing 20 turnovers and outside of Lewis and Turkoglu, the rest of the Magic shot just 13-41 for 31.7%. From beyond the arc, they were just 1-12 for 8.3%. Despite all the lackluster performances from the Magic on the offensive end, they were in position on the road to win the game. That speaks volumes. They now get to go home and this should be a game that they win. The Lakers can't be feeling too confident after their game two performance. In a game they squeaked out, they got their game from Kobe who had 29 points and shot well and they also got their game from Gasol who finished with 24 points and shot 50%. They even had a big game from Odom who finished with 19. Add those performances to a turnover advantage of +8 and they still could not shake the Magic on their home court. Orlando has gone 56-for-156 (36%) from the field including 18-for-53 (34%) from beyond the arc. This is from a team that averages 46% from the field and 38% from three. When Orlando puts together even an average-shooting night (never mind an above-average one), the Lakers will find themselves behind in this game. The Magic are 55-22-1 ATS after allowing 100+ points in a game and 38-14 ATS after a straight-up loss. They are also 26-10 ATS against teams that can shoot (those averaging 46%+) from the field. At home this season, as a favorite of six points or less, they are 12-4 ATS. They are also now an incredible 16-3 ATS this season revenging a loss in which they allowed 100+ points. Dating back to last season, the Magic are 12-3 ATS following back-to-back losses. The Magic, in a must-win game, get it done and cover the spread. We have cashed huge on UNDERs in the first two games. We stated in both of those write-ups that the oddsmakers had the line dead wrong. It was proven in regulation play where we've seen 175 and 176 points scored. Even an OT period couldn’t ruin our UNDER play last game. Despite shaving another four points from the total, this line is still too high. In the playoffs, Lakers games are averaging 197.8 points per game while Magic games have averaged just 191.5 (combined average of 194.7). Defense has ruled this series and for that matter, it has been the signature of both of these teams, despite the offensive ink the Lakers get. The Lakers are now 10-1 to the UNDER against the East, and 35-17-1 UNDER in their last 53 overall. Orlando has gone UNDER six straight times against the West. Yes, this is a different venue from the first two games, but there is no reason to think that will lead to more scoring. The Magic are 15-7 UNDER at home this season against winning teams. They are 23-13 UNDER against teams that shoot 46%+ from the field and 13-3 UNDER against teams that average 103+ points per game. The Lakers have gone 16-5 to the UNDER in their last 21 game-three playoff games. The Magic are 17-4 UNDER since last season after allowing 100+ points in back-to-back games. While this line, after losing eight points from game one, is now approaching the right spot, the oddsmakers still have it set too high. I expect the Magic to cover and this game to finish UNDER the total. NBA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters: NBA-Basketball-Picks-June-06-2009 NBA-Basketball-Picks-June-02-2009 NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-30-2009 NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-29-2009 NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-27-2009 |
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