darrell,

We enter the Finals on a 65% run (22-12) as we look to continue that success in the Finals. Think Miami has a chance here? A lot of people do. But, I think Dallas takes this series in six or seven. I think Miami is on a mission and they have a couple of great players and one of the best, most successful coaches in NBA history. But, Dallas has home court. That's huge. Home teams in the 2-3-2 format have won the series about 80% of the time. Dallas is so balanced and strong that I see no overwhelming reason to back Miami. Dallas is a better road team than Miami and they have shown they can beat anyone. They took care of the defending world champions on the road! In beating San Antonio, they showed they can beat great defenses. Then, they beat Phoenix, showing they can beat a very different type of team - a great offense. And, Dallas was 2-0 this season against Miami winning in Miami by 13 and at home by 36 points. Over the past three seasons, Dallas is 5-1 ATS in this matchup. In the end, I'm on Dallas in this series.

My NBA Power Rankings are updated weekly and can be found here.

Please Tell A Friend about this newsletter and they'll thank you!

Good luck , darrell!

Game: Miami at Dallas (9:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 stars on Dallas -5.5

Two Finals rookies collide in Dallas in what should be a great series. Miami is playing very well with Shaq actually trying and he and Wade healthy. With Pat Riley at the helm, they have the experience here to give the road team a shot. But, Dallas is on a mission this year. They know this is their shot. They beat the defending champions and second best home team on their home court. That right there says a lot. Miami, too beat a great team on the road in Detroit. But, was Detroit really that great by the time Miami faced them? I don't think so. I talked alot in that series about the fact that Detroit just wasn't right. The Cleveland series took a lot out of them and they were tired and disjointed. Give Miami credit but give Dallas more. The Mavs can play with anyone with any style. No one on Miami is going to be able to guard Dirk. If he's on, Dallas wins - plain and simple. And, that's not the only troubling matchup for Miami. They will also struggle with Jason Terry's quickness and Josh Howard. Miami will score with Shaq and Wade but they don't have as many contributors. Back to Howard, he will get his in this game and the Mavs haven't lost a game when he scores 20+ points (25-0). Dallas has won 10 of the last 12 games in this series and they showed this year they can blow out Miami. Dallas is 35-21 ATS this season vs. winning teams, 23-9 ATS vs. teams that have outscored their opponents by 3+ ppg and 10-1 ATS vs. great rebounding teams like Miami. Against top-level teams this year, Miami has been terrible both SU and ATS. I look for Dallas to make a statement here and win and cover the spread.